Israel

Knesset Session Opens

Today was the first day of the winter session of the Knesset. As is tradition, the session began by a speech by the Prime Minister. Netanyahu used the speech to attack the Goldstone Commission, stating that he will not agree to allowing Ehud Olmert, Tzpi Livni and Ehud Barak to stand trial for the actions the government will take. He reiterated the position he put forth at the UN, that if the UN embraces the Goldstone report, it would end the chances of any peace between Israel and the Palestinians; since no Israeli government will ever be willing to take a chance on peace if they cannot defend themselves-- if need be. As I was listening to excerpts from the speech, and those of opposition leader Tzpi Livni, I could not help reflect on an interview I heard last night with former Israeli President Yitzahk Navon (now 88). He was asked what was the major difference between today’s leaders and the leader he know earlier in the state's history (early in his career he was a close aid of Ben Gurion). Navon's simple answer, was a lack vision. In his opinion, today’s leaders have no vision of where they are trying to take the country.

Israel released video clips today of the beginning of the rioting on the Temple Mount. It clearly shows how the rioting was premeditated by riot's leaders. Video shows a small group of rioters attacking an even smaller group of French tourists, who were later claimed to be Israelis by the Muslims. It also shows that initially, very few Arabs were involved in the riots. It looked so unsuccessful that Al Jazeera TV used stock footage to show the rioting, instead of the limited protests and rock throwing going on, in order to help stir the pot.

Today, former Education and Justice Minister Amnon Rubinstein renewed his suggestion that Israel convene its own commission to investigate the charges stemming from the Gaza War. He believes strongly the only way to blunt the criticism against the war is to mount an Israeli investigation led by an independent jurist. He believes the Goldstone Report is not worth the paper on which it is written and the only way to blunt its claims is for Israel to mount its own transparent investigation. When the former Dean of the Tel Aviv University Law school was asked how a respected jurist like Goldstone could issue a report like the one he issued, his answer was there are only two explanations. One possibility is that some lawyers adjust their thinking to the needs of their clients. Another possibility is that some lawyers are just stupid. He intimated he felt the later was the case with Goldstone; implying he might be book smart, but lacks any common sense.

Israelis have been analyzing the import of the decision by Turkey to cancel the joint air force training exercise. While some tried to play it down, it does mark another point along a steady slide in relations with Turkey that have been deteriorating since the election of Endogen, with Turkey's ever steady slide to be known as an Islamist state. Earlier the military acted as counterbalance to Erdogan, and had cherished its ties to Israel. However, now that they have tried and failed to unseat him, the military is falling in line with the civilian government.

A few articles worth reading first on the ridiculous bestowing of the Nobel on President Obama- Thomas Friedman wrote a great piece in yesterday's NYT the Peace Keepers Prize

Ari Shavit wrote an excellent piece in Fridayís Ha'aretz on the long term effect of the Goldstone report Watch of for the Goldstoner.

Finally, James Woolsey, the former head of the CIA, about Israeli settlements in today's Wall Street Journal called the Ugly Premise of the Settlement Opponents

Mitchell Visit Accomplishes Little

Senator Mitchell is once again in Israel and once again it looks like he will not accomplish anything. He has been unsuccessful in getting the sides any closer to resuming peace talks. As one Israeli correspondent stated, it’s beginning to look like the harassment of elders by making Mitchell, who is 76, travel back in forth, for so little to show for it.

Minister of Foreign Affairs Lieberman even went so far as to publicly state that there is no chance for peace for many years and the world needs just live with that. He may be right, but it is certainly not something someone in his position should and it's certainly not what the world wants to hear. Even what the majority of Israelis would like a more positive attitude. He is trying to compare the Israeli- Arab conflict to the conflict in Cyprus between Greeks and Turks, which has never been resolved. Making that comparison shows a lack of understanding of history, the Arab world, or the world at large for that matter. That is dangerous.

There were two interesting news pieces on the Israeli TV in the last two days. One story was about the growing number of Haredi woman who have been trying to leave join the secular world. This not something that is happening in large numbers but a growing number does not seem to accept that their lot in life in the 21st century is to stay home in poverty and give birth and raise on average 9.5 kids.

The second story was the growing active opposition to Neturi Karta within the Haredi community. There used to be a fear of them, but their recent actions in support of Muslim fundamentalists seems to have gone too far and Haredi rabbis have been attacking them. The story showed an exchange caught on camera where one major rabbi was speaking, and he received a question from a Neturi Karta member. When the Neuturi Karta member identified himself he was widely booed but the rabbi insisted he be heard. The Neturi Karta member then went on to say that Jews must always beg from the non-Jews to be left alone. He stated that if Jews had gone down on their knees and begged Hitler more Jews would have been saved. The rabbi then answered that all of the major rabbis of today have rejected that approach it is totally against Judaism to take that approach

An item that seems to have not received much coverage is the fact that in the last few days Al Qaeda has declared war on China. That is because China refuses to allow the Mulsim separatists in Sinkian to create a separate state. Y ou have to give it to Al Qaeda, it certainly does not mind making enemies.

Jerusalem Quiet

Jerusalem was quiet today, without any Arab demonstrations. The arrest last night of the leader of Islamic Movement's northern branch, Sheikh Ra'ad Salah, did not cause new demonstrations; he was released to his home in Um El Fahem and forbidden to return to Jerusalem for 30 days.

The major event in the city was a competition in Gan Sacker (the park below the Knesset) by vehicles without engines, to which thousands attended.

Israel celebrated the announcement today that Ada Yonah, who became the first Israeli woman to receive a Noble Prize. She shared the Nobel Prize for Chemistry with two Americans. She was awarded the prize for studies on the structure of the ribosome. She is the ninth20Israeli to receive a Nobel Prize, the first being the writer Shai Agnon. Professor Yona had a her major breakthrough in 2001 and she is now 70, so it’s encouraging for those of us over 30 that not all great work is done by the young.

It is very hard to predict what will happen with Iran in the next few weeks. A bad sign could be how happy Ahmadinejad seems to be. He certainly seems to feel negotiations are going well with the West. Meanwhile planning is going forward for the largest joint Israeli-American military exercise in history. Four Stars Admiral, the commander of the US Sixth Fleet, Mark Fitzgerald arrived in Israel. He will be there for almost a month and will be commanding the exercise. This is the first time such a high ranking officer will be in charge of such an exercise. 15 US ships and a large number of troops are participating in the exercise as well.

Israel Head of Islamic Movement--Israeli Company Develops Method of Generating Energy From Roads

Israel took a risk today and arrested Sheik Ra’ad Salah, the head of the Islamic Movement's Northern branch, for incitement. Salah has been the leading Muslim leader “fighting on behalf” of Al- Aksa Mosque in Jerusalem. He has been giving daily speeches claiming that Israel wants to destroy the mosque and his incitement has been growing. As I wrote yesterday, however absurd the claims are, the incitement cannot be ignored since it has clearly led to bloodshed in the past. Will arresting him solve the problem? No, but allowing him to continue to call on Palestinians to riot is also problematic as the line between free speech and calling fire in a theater has always been a difficult one.

Israeli engineers unveiled a new invention today: a method of generating electricity from the pressure caused by cars driving on a highway. The system, developed by a company named Innowattech together with the Technion University, uses Piezoelectric materials to convert the mechanical energy provided by the car riding over the strip in electric energy. When one of the TV news shows highlighted the invention, they reviewed some of Israel’s earlier successful inventions. These inventions include the solar water heater, which saves 4% of Israel’s potential energy usage, drip irrigation, which is now exported to 100 countries, cherry tomatoes, and the Thumb Drive. This is without mentioning all of the military technology invented in Israel.

Rioting in Jerusalem

Over the course of the past week there have been ever growing demonstrations by Palestinians in defense of “The Temple Mount”. The demonstrations have surprised most Israelis, since there has not been a change in Israeli policy toward the Temple Mount, nor any provocative visits by any Israeli officials, nor has there been a new archeological dig at the site. Instead, the demonstrations are an attempt by the Northern Branch of the Muslim Brotherhood to seize the moment and whip up some anti-Israel frenzy within the Palestinian community and beyond, in the Arab world.

The demonstrations began on the Friday before Yom Kippur, when the former Mufti of Jerusalem spoke at Friday prayers, claiming that Al Aqsa is threatened by an Israeli plot to destroy it and replace it with a Jewish prayer site. When Motti Kirshenbaum questioned Avi Sacharoff, the leading Arab affairs correspondent of Ha’aretz, if the average Muslim Brotherhood members actually believed the rhetoric, he was astounded to receive the answer – 'absolutely! ’ Very large numbers of Palestinians, Israeli Arabs and others in the Arab really believe these fantasies.

These fantasies need to be taken seriously, since it was a very similar set of claims and circumstances that started the Arab riots in 1929, that resulted in the destruction of the Jewish community of Hebron. Much more recently, similar claims, albeit using the pretense of a five-minute visit to the Temple Mount by Ariel Sharon in 2000, triggered the start of the deadly second Intifada. Like so many other things in the Middle East, policy makers, as well as reporters, need not be guided by what is truly rational, but rather, the irrational claims that too many fundamentalists easily latch on to.

Talking about irrational stories…in the past several days, the Palestinian Authority, under strong pressure from the Obama administration, has dropped its support for the Goldstone report. The Obama administration has embraced Prime Minister Netanyahu’s view that the report was detrimental to the peace process, and pressured the Palestinian authority to dismiss the report accordingly. The explanation in the Arab press for the Palestinian decision to negate the report was that Israel agreed to give a company owned by Abu Mazen’s son the spectrum to operate a second cellular phone company in the West Bank. Never mind that Abu Mazen's son is not involved in the company.... also never mind the fact Israel has already given them the spectrum. But this false rumor is what is now widely being reported.

Gilad Tape Released

Israelis were glued to their television screens today watching a 2-minute video of Gilad Shalit. Before the receipt of the recording, it was not expected the government or the family would release it. However, once it was received, both the government and the family agreed to release the tape. The video shows Shalit to be in good health and seemed mentally alert. Hamas had him tell a story of a visit his parents paid him in his early in his army service. The story was detailed and clearly could only be told by someone in possession of his mental faculties. Hamas used the standard method of proving the video was recent by showing him holding a Palestinian paper from the day the interview, done on September 14th, 2009.

Israeli observers were pleasantly surprised by the lack of propaganda in the tape. Many felt it was an indication Hamas was now serious about reaching a deal. Clearly, Hamas would like to reach such a deal to strengthen its political standing. The question remains whether Hamas will be willing to climb down from the tree they created, which stated there was no flexibility in the list of prisoners. There are a number of prisoners on the list Israel will clearly find impossible to release, including the terrorist responsible for the Passover attack on the Park Hotel in Netanya.

Prior to the release of the tape there was some concern the recording would increase the political pressure on the Israeli government to reach an agreement at any price. Ironically, this may not be the case. Although the constant showing of the tape on Israeli TV will no doubt create an even higher sense of identification with Gilad Shalit than existed until now, his relatively good condition will allow the government to negotiate at a reasonable pace.

It’s hard to really know what to understand from yesterday's meeting with the US and other western representatives. The Iranians seemed to have made significant concessions, specifically their willingness to have some of their low enriched Uranium transported to be enriched and converted to fuel rods in Russia. However, much of this has to be taken with a very healthy dose of skepticism. It is clear that one of the overriding strategic goals of the current Iranian government is to develop nuclear weapons. Therefore, any tactical announcement to avoid sanction is just that, a tactical move to delay, while Iran no doubt moves forward. Which of course is the dilemmas. What can the west reasonably expect from Iran, and how can it know if it gets it? I am not sure there really is an answer to that question, and the only real answer will, I am afraid, be a regime change.

Shalit Video Expected

News from Israel was dominated today by the announcement that Israel had reached an agreement with Hamas to release 20 Palestinian women prisoners in return for receiving a video showing Gilad Shalit alive and well. This is the first time that Israel agreed to a release of prisoners in return for “a sign of life”. None of the prisoners that are being released fall into the category of “blood on their hands” and the worse of them was scheduled to be released in less than two years. The cabinet supported the decision unanimously, but two key Likud ministers made it clear that they would not agree to the much wider prisoner exchanges that have been talked about. This decision is clearly the first step along the way to some larger agreement; although there is no guarantee that one will be reached. In addition, the Israeli government hopes that by getting a current video of Shalit it will increase pressure on Hamas to keep Shalit safe. Of course, a current video of Shalit if released by of Hamas will no doubt increase the pressure within Israel to make a deal at any price.

Barak Almost Arrested in England

Israeli Minister of Defense Barak risked arrest today when a group of Palestinians requested that he be arrested in England for war crimes committed during the Gaza operation. The Palestinian request falls under the statue that originated after World War II to arrest Nazis, but has been used in the past few years to try to arrest anyone accused of war crimes, regardless of the jurisdiction. Barak was advised to leave immediately; he was in Britain for a combined private visit with his wife together with a speech to the British Labor government. Barak decided to stay, and the British Foreign Ministry intervened, claiming to the court that Barak enjoyed diplomatic immunity. The court put off any decision in the case, therefore allowing Barak to finish his scheduled visit tomorrow and return home. Unfortunately the Goldstone report has opened a large can of worms for many Israeli officials, especially those who may be retired and carry no form of official protection.

In the past few days it has become clear that the talks scheduled between Iran and the West are not going anywhere. The chief Iranian negotiator has stated that the issue of the Iranian nuclear program is off the table, thus making this meeting largely meaningless. Does this mean that a sanctions regime can be put in place that will actually work? It is doubtful, but of course worth trying.

There are a number of articles worth reading regarding this issue. Anthony Cordesman wrote last week in the Wall Street Journal about Israeli military options. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204518504574418813806271306.html Today in the Wall Street Journal there is an interesting piece by Bret Stephens called, "Neocon Make a Comeback". http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704471504574438831789972954.html On the other side of the ledger there is an Op Ed Piece by Flynt Leverett and Hilary Mann Levereet called "How to Press the Advantage with Iran". They suggest that the solution is not sanctions but rather strategic engagement, basically forgetting the last few months.

Netanyahu Speaks at the UN, Progress at on Iran, Ahmadinejad Gives His Yearly Rant

For the last 48 hours the world's attention was turned to the UN. Yesterday President Obama spoke to the General Assembly and today he chaired a special meeting of the Security Council, only the 3rd time in history the a US president has done so. In between, Iranian President Ahmadinejad gave his yearly speech to the Security Council. If in past years he was treated as a true celebrity, this year after his election coup, most of the leaders of the world seem much less deferential to him. More than half the member countries of the UN were absent from his speech last night, including most of Western Europe and almost the whole Arab world. His speech was considered by many reporters as more moderate. Of course, one can ignore the sentence in which he states that a small group can not be allowed to have such control in the world (i. e. the Jews). When I saw excerpts of Ahmadinejad's speech on Israeli TV I heard him go on to say that this control will only end when the 7th Mahdis appears. This may have been too much for most of the Western media to understand. Of course the Sunnis in the room understood it only too well, since when the 7th Madis appears all those (Sunnis) who have strayed from the true word will be slain.

Despite this rather depressing speech there were signs of light at the UN today. While Iran was not officially on the agenda of the Security Council today – general nuclear disarmament was, both the leaders of France and Great Britain gave speeches calling for strong actions against Iran. The Europeans made President Obama seem to be the moderate and they the extremist when it comes to Iran. With Russia seemingly willing to go along, that just leaves the Chinese to be convinced in order to possibly place meaningful sanctions on Iran. There seems to finally be a sense of urgency at the UN on the subject. Will it translate into action? Only time will tell. But, I am slightly more optimistic today than I was a few days ago.

Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke this afternoon to the General Assembly. In a well crafted speech he began by thanking those countries who walked out on Ahmadinejad yesterday and scolding those that listened. He brought with him two props, the Protocols of the Wansee Conference- where the Germans planned the Final Solution and architectural plans of Auschwitz with Himmler's signature. Netany ahu questioned whether the German government, who has kept these plans, has been part of some great hoax in telling about the Holocaust.

Netanyahu then went on to attack the Goldstone Report on Gaza by explaining that if Israel was to take further risks for peace it had to know it could defend itself. He went back to the arguments that those who favored withdrawal from Gaza use to say- if Israel withdrew and they attack, they can be leveled. Netanyahu even gave the historic parallel that the only time a country had been hit by missile was England during WWII and they responded by carpet bombing German cities. He said that he was not passing judgment just describing history, and while Israel would never do that, it had to be able to defend itself (he went on to describe Israel's effort to warn civilians with text messages and phone calls etc). 20 Netanyahu said that Israel was willing to take risks, since he believed the only solution was two states: a Palestinian state side by side with a Jewish one (he received his one round of applause for that), but Israel could only do that if it was secure, and one of the ways to make sure Israel was secure was to stop the worlds greatest supporter of terrorism, Iran, from acquiring nuclear weapons. For if a country that preferred living in the 9th century acquired nuclear weapons it could be catastrophe for mankind Overall a very good speech

Obama at UN

Today is a day after the mini summit at the UN took place it is almost unnecessary for me to write this column, as everything I stated the day before the meeting remains true. Nothing was accomplished and its having taken place was probably counter productive. The Netanyahu delegation pounced on the part of the statement by President Obama that Israel must “restrain” settlement activity as a victory, since he did not say end it completely like he previously had stated (see full statement). The US administration clarified the position later on by stating that restraining and ending have the same meaning. Obama did call on the resumption of talks without conditions- conditions that the Palestinians have added lately to include either a resumption of talks where they left off with Olmert, or based on the 1967 borders. These are preconditions that Netanyahu will of co urse never accept. Netanyahu has stated that he will meet without preconditions. Meanwhile President Obama gave a fairly standard speech in the UN today, making all the usual statements, including the fact that the United States does not accept the legitimacy of any further settlements. This has been the stated US policy since 1967 so other than the Bush administration's conditional acceptance of the settlement blocks there is nothing new here.

I will also continue to seek a just and lasting peace between Israel, Palestine, and the Arab world. (Applause.) We will continue to work on that issue. Yesterday, I had a constructive meeting with Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Abbas. We have made some pr ogress. Palestinians have strengthened their efforts on security. Israelis have facilitated greater freedom of movement for the Palestinians. As a result of these efforts on both sides, the economy in the West Bank has begun to grow. But more progress is needed. We continue to call on Palestinians to end incitement against Israel, and we continue to emphasize that America does not accept the legitimacy of continued Israeli settlements. (Applause.)

The time has come -- the time has come to re-launch negotiations without preconditions that address the permanent status issues: security for Israelis and Palestinians, borders, refugees, and Jerusalem. And the goal is clear: Two states living side by side in peace and security -- a Jewish state of Israel, with true security for20all Israelis; and a viable, independent Palestinian state with contiguous territory that ends the occupation that began in 1967, and realizes the potential of the Palestinian people. (Applause.) Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that he was very happy with President Obama's statement “a Jewish State” and much has been made of that recently, with one of Netanyhu’s first demands when he came into office was that the Palestinians accept Israel as a Jewish state. I have understood the argument- the Palestinians do not get two states the Palestinian state and the bi National State of Israel- but the language is not new, whether from the Balfour declaration calling for the establishment of a Jewish National homeland or from the text of the 1947 UN resolution 181 – the partition plan that stated: Independent Arab and Jewish States and the Special International Regime for the City of Jerusalem, set forth in Part III of this Plan, shall come into existence in Palestine So I am glad to give Netanyahu credit for having the world call Israel a Jewish state- but it does seem to ignore history.

On a positive note President Obama seems to have had very positive meeting with Russian President Medvedev of Russia.  After the meeting they both spoke about stopping Iran from aquiring nuclear weapons.  Medvedev made the following comment: Sanctions rarely lead to productive results.  But in some cases sanctions are inevitable.  Maybe Obama received something from the Russians after all for ending the missile program in Eastern Europe.