Israel

Netanyahu Gives Frightening Yom Hashoa Speech

Yom Hoshoah began in Israel tonight at sundown. I am sitting here writing this evening, frankly, scared for our future. Prime Minister Netanyahu just finished speaking at Israel’s official memorial ceremony at Yad Vashem. Netanyahu briefly shared several anecdotes of Holocaust survivors he had met the day before. However, the overwhelming majority of his long speech was devoted to talking about the Iranian threat. Netanyahu vigorously attacked those who complain claiming that the Iranian threat cannot be compared to the Holocaust. He fervently stated he believed it was the responsibility of the Prime Minister of Israel to do so. Netanyahu compared the current situation, and by implication himself, to Vladamir Jabotinsky, who called on the Jews of Poland to leave prior to World War II. Netanyahu stated that Jabotinsky was vehemently attacked for his warnings at that time. Now this son of one of Jabotinsky’s aids sees himself as the modern Jabotinsky. However, unlike Jabotinsky, who failed to save the Jewish people, he, Benjamin Netanyahu will not fail. Netanyahu will employ the power of the State of Israel to stop this existential threat. Over the last year I was never quite sure whether or not Obama and Netanyahu were participating in a well-choreographed play. I hoped so, but I was always worried. Tonight I am convinced that Netanyahu is a “true believer”. As such, he is on his own page. This is very scary. Since people who so envision themselves, more often then not, make decisions based on their views, rather than based on the facts. Meanwhile, today was marred by dual tragedies. We needlessly lost two soldiers today. One soldier lost her life when the lighting system at Mt. Herzl collapsed during a rehearsal for next week’s Yom Ha’atzmaut ceremonies. The second young soldier died after he collapsed during an intake exercise for an elite combat unit. Finally, the Army Chief of Staff came to the only decision he could and removed Lt. Colonel Eisner from his command for hitting an unarmed demonstrator with his gun. Whatever the provocation might have been, it was terribly wrong for a senior officer to lose his temper that way. It is bad enough when young recruits lose their temper after being provoked. It is utterly inexcusable for a senior officer to do so.

Would Be Protesters Stopped, Killing Continues in Syria

For the last few days the Israeli news has been obsessed with the story of the Pro-Palestinian demonstrators who flew into Tel Aviv today and wanted to go to Bethlehem to protest the occupation. From a tactical standpoint the actions of the Israeli government have been a great success. The government convinced European governments, as well as airlines, not to allow the majority of the expected demonstrators to board their aircrafts. Of those that did board planes, the authorities managed to intercept 49 of them at Ben-Gurion Airport. Many of these hopeful demonstrators were immediately put on planes back to their cities of origin. Though, 29 French citizens will spend tonight in an Israeli jail, until they can be placed on a departing flight tomorrow.
It seems less than a dozen of the demonstrators escaped the Israeli dragnet and made it to Bethlehem. The question that remains is why? Israel went to tremendous efforts to stop this attempted protest. To many, these efforts seemed like self-defeating over kill. It might not matter in any case, considering the events of the world in the past few months, these intended demonstrations have received very little coverage outside of Israel.
One event commandeering the world stage remains the continued killings in Syria. A ceasefire has supposedly gone into effect. As a result, only 19 people were killed today. Since Kofi Anan announced his peace plan, 1,100 Syrians have lost their lives. The number of casualties is greater than died all those who died in all of the wars between Israel and Syria.
Meanwhile, Egypt has descended into additional chaos, with the decision by the Egyptian election commission to void the leading Salafi, the official candidate of the Muslim Brotherhood, and an old confidante of Mubarak as candidate in the Presidential race. Each of the aforementioned, as well as a group of minor candidates were disqualified for different technical reasons. These disqualifications have further clouded the race and strengthened the feeling that nothing has really changed in Egypt. Meanwhile, the Egyptian economy continues to slide toward oblivion.
I wish I could say something intelligent about the talks that took place yesterday between Iran and the West, in Istanbul. However, I have no insight. Any progress, or lack of it, has been covered up for the moment by positive statements about the atmosphere of the talks. Hopefully in the coming days we will know more.

Is there Reason For Optimism on Iran

Happily, the major news in Israel today has been about the throngs of visitors flocking to the north to enjoy the spring weather, the full rivers, and the snow on Mt. Hermon this Passover vacation. For the first time in years the ski resort is open during this holiday season. It is estimated that 500,000 Israelis have streamed up north.

Meanwhile, there is cautious optimism in Israel over the American conditions for Iranian talks. The talks will open in Istanbul, despite the fact that the Iranians originally did not want Istanbul as a venue, but have now acquiesced. The American position is that Iran can have a nuclear program, but they cannot have a nuclear bomb. The American proposal to Iran, that was supposedly accompanied by a clear warning that time is running out, would require Teheran to give up all nuclear material that has been enriched to 20 percent. Iran would also have to destroy its underground enrichment facility. In the past few days there have been a number of public utterances that it is against Islamic law to develop nuclear weapons and that Iran would not. Clearly, the leadership of Iran is divided. However, there is a sense of optimism that those who feel the sanctions are too much for Iran to bear may be getting the upper hand.

 

 

 

I came aross interesting short article on the Charedization of Religtiuos Zionism called the Excessive Separation of the Sexes Stems From teh Ultra-Orthodox's Inferiority Complex

 

 

 

Happily, the major news in Israel today has been about the throngs of visitors flocking to the north to enjoy the spring weather, the full rivers, and the snow on Mt. Hermon this Passover vacation. For the first time in years the ski resort is open during this holiday season. It is estimated that 500,000 Israelis have streamed up north.

Meanwhile, there is cautious optimism in Israel over the American conditions for Iranian talks. The talks will open in Istanbul, despite the fact that the Iranians originally did not want Istanbul as a venue, but have now acquiesced. The American position is that Iran can have a nuclear program, but they cannot have a nuclear bomb. The American proposal to Iran, that was supposedly accompanied by a clear warning that time is running out, would require Teheran to give up all nuclear material that has been enriched to 20 percent. Iran would also have to destroy its underground enrichment facility. In the past few days there have been a number of public utterances that it is against Islamic law to develop nuclear weapons and that Iran would not. Clearly, the leadership of Iran is divided. However, there is a sense of optimism that those who feel the sanctions are too much for Iran to bear may be getting the upper hand.

 

 

 

I came aross interesting short article on the Charedization of Religtiuos Zionism called the Excessive Separation of the Sexes Stems From teh Ultra-Orthodox's Inferiority Complex

 

 

 

 

Passover Reflection, and Dangers of the "Arab Spring"

It's erev Pesach, and this morning's Israeli papers have traditional interviews with the Prime Minister, Netanyahu and other leading officials. In the interviews that I skimmed this morning, Netanyahu projected the confidence of a prime minister who can clearly complete his full term in office, and if the public opinion polls are accurate, will have no problem winning reelection. Friends who oppose Netanyahu keep asking why is he so popular? The answer is simple. Whether Netanyahu is responsible, or not, Israel has enjoyed unprecedented peace over the past three years– and despite the world's economic difficulties, unprecedented prosperity. How much of that can be credited to Netanyahu as prime minister? Probably, not much. Interestingly take a look at this morning's article in the New York Times about Hezbollah's fear of being isolated.(Loyalty to Syrian President Could Isolate Hezbollah) Deep in the article is a reference to the fear of inflicting on its members what happened to them during the second Lebanon war. So, however traumatic that war was for Israelis, it clearly achieved part of its goal, deterrence. So much of the relative quiet that Israel has enjoyed is no doubt due to the second Lebanon war and the war in Gaza, (both under Olmert.) Netanyahu has of course also gained from the Iron Dome Defense System, begun under Defense Minister Perez. Regardless of the causes, Netanyahu is enjoying the fruits; and with no credible opponent, Netanyahu should sail to victory in the next election.

Events in the south remind us of the dangers that the "Arab Spring" has brought. While many worry that the Muslim brotherhood is on the way to taking over Egypt, and as a result, Egypt could, once again, become an adversary of Israel, the more immediate threat is Egypt becoming a failed state; a failed state that borders Israel, with 90 million residents. The rocket attack on Eilat from the Sinai is indicative of the fact that Egypt has almost no control over what goes on in Sinai. This is a problem that did not start with the revolution, since part of the problem has been the systematic neglect of the Bedouin of Sinai by the Egyptian government for a generation. However, the implosion of the Egyptian central government has made the situation with the Bedouin all the more dangerous.

Lastly, in his first interview, in this morning's papers, the new commander of Israel's northern command, expressed concern that the stockpile of chemical and biological weapons that Syria has might fall into the hands of the Hezbollah. He stated that if that happened, it would be a moment that "shover hakaylim", which literally mean breaks the utensils, meaning totally changes the status quo, in a way that would force Israel to act.

On that note… Chag Samech

 

Muslim Brotherhood Revokes Promise Not to Run Presidential candidate

The Muslim Brotherhood made a surprising and disturbing announcement today. They announced their candidate for President of Egypt, despite the fact they explicitly promised not to run a candidate for President. Their candidate was immediately considered to be the front runner. It now looks most likely that the Muslim Brotherhood will sooon control both the Presidency and the parliament of Egypt. This will allow them to reach their dream of an Egypt controlled my Islam, and possibly Islamic law, much sooner than anyone thought. Their candidate, Khairat al-Shater, is a successful businessman, who has been the Brotherhood's main financier in recent years. Of course, being a successful businessman does not qualify one to be President. The Brotherhood's move is expected to further radicalize Egyptian politics. An Egypt totally controlled by the Brotherhood is most likely to continue its rapid economic spiral downward. In speaking to Smadar Perry, one of Israel’s best experts on Egypt, a few weeks ago, Perry voiced her concern that the greatest danger facing Israel from Egypt was the possibility that Egypt would spiral down economically and million starving Egyptian refugees would try to get into Israel. Today, that possibility might have become more likely.
Last night the price of gas in Israel was supposed to go up, as a reflection of increasing world-wide oil prices, primarily caused by increased sanctions on Iran. As the price hike neared, there were more and more voices of protest, saying that gas prices were just too high (Gas prices in Israel are indeed twice US prices. However, they are in line with gasoline prices in Europe). Some of The opponents of the increase organized a small rally last night, blocking major streets in Tel Aviv. In the end, at the last moment, Prime Minister Netanyhu announced that the government would forgo some tax revenue on gas, in order to limit the increase. Netanyahu came under heavy criticism today for this decision, not so much for the decision itself, but for the way it was made–– unilaterally at the last moment, responding to pressure. That a raise in the cost of gasoline was coming was known for days. Though, instead of holding an in-depth review of the government policy, Netanyahu decided to hold the line on the gas increase, at the last moment, by “cutting unspecified government jobs” to pay for it

Mofaz Wins Kadima Primary

Shaul Mofaz won the Kadima primaries, ousting Tzpi Livini and making him the head of the party. The upset did not come as a surprise. Israeli pundits have been predicting this outcome for the last few weeks. Mofaz won, despite the fact that polls showed Livni ahead, among Kadima voters. However, Kadima voters were not the story. Instead, it was Israel’s version of Tammany Hall at work that decisively defeated Livni.

Mofaz won 62% of the vote. How does Tammany Hall style politics work in Israel? There are what are called "Kablany Kolot", that means vote contractors. These contractors line up votes among people who are not interested in the party, or the candidates. The contractors of course, receive their indirect compensation in terms of influence favors and who knows what else. A good example of this is the Arab village of Dir El Bari. In the 2009 elections 27 people from that village voted for Kadima. Yesterday, 1,100 from Dir El Bari voted in the Kadima primaries, almost all for Mofaz. To put this into perspective, in all of Tel Aviv only 1,200 people voted in the Kadima primaries.

Does it really matter? No, not really. Kadima is a party with no future. Shaul Mofaz was an uninspired Chief of Staff, and an uninspired Defense Minister. There is no reason to believe that he can bring back a party, that according to polls has lost 2/3 of its support in the past year. That process will only accelerate. There is no reason to believe Mofaz can present himself as a real alternative to Netanyahu. He has proved himself a great Tammany Hall politician, ousting someone with a true public following, but who proved to be a poor politician. That, unfortunately, will be the extent of Mofaz's legacy and that of Kadima.

I have begun reading Peter Beinhart's new book. Thanks to eBooks, Apple sent me an e-mail two nights ago alerting me that the book I preordered was now available. I had not expected to like this book and I was not disappointed. What surprises me, however, is the egregious number of factual mistakes in the book. I will probably write a long review of the book for next week that will post on the TIMES OF ISRAEL web site. If you missed my e-mail yesterday, here is a link to my article from yesterday's issue It's time for the IDF to step up its defensive game

 

Supreme Court Rules Against Migron Settlers

The Israeli Supreme Court issued an important ruling this afternoon, in an on going case, relating to the removal to the outpost of Migron. Migron was one of many unauthorized Israeli settlements built in the past decade. The settlement of Migron, however, was deemed by the court to be on private Palestinian land, after the Palestinian owners sued. Over the past few years the removal of the settlements has been delayed numerous times by appeals to the courts including to Israel's Supreme Court. The court, however, had ordered the removal of the Migron settlement in the past, and had further set a date for the end of this month. The Israeli government tried to reach some sort of compromise with the settlers, in which they would leave on their own accord. After much effort, a compromise was reached last week, allowing the settlers to remain for 3 years while a new settlement was built somewhere else. With the agreement in hand, the government then went back to the Supreme Court and asked for delay in the implementation of the agreement.At the hearing last week justices seemed to question the request. One Justice wondered whether three years would turn into seven. Another Justice asked why the plaintiff (the Arabs whose land was in question) were not part of the settlement talks. Today the court gave its answer. They denied the government's request for a three year delay. However, they agreed to delay the removal of the Migron settlers until August 1, to give the children in the settlement time to finish out the school year.One of the interesting factors in the Supreme Court's decision was that new chief, Justice Asher Grunis, was one of the judges in this unanimous ruling. Grunis had been the darling of the right. Grunis' appointment had been pushed by right wing Knesset members who believed he would be more sympathetic to their views. In this case they were disappointed.So where does it go from here? Prime Minister Netanyahu stated the government will respect the decision of the court. Right wing Knesset members say they will pass a law to overturn the court's decision. The settlers say they will not agree to move under any circumstances. The Tal Law that allows the Haridim not to go into the army also expires this summer. It promises to be a challenging summer for the government.There was an interesting article in the New York Times on Saturday on how The United States is coming close to achieving energy independence. The article is entitled: U.S. Inches Toward Goal of Energy Independence

The Shooting in France One Day Later, Israel to Buy Sixth German Sub

The news in Israel today was dominated again by yesterday's shooting in France. What struck me, more than anything, was the profound regrets and sympathy that French leaders showed to what had happened. They seem to be in shock that something like this could happen in France. Regardless of their political views, French leaders expressed their sorrow, as well as their solidarity with the Jewish community. As of now, it is not known who carried out the attack. The original belief that Neo-Nazis, former French paratroopers perpetrated the attack, has turned out to, most likely, be false. The only thing that is known for certain is that same gun and motorcycle were used to kill French paratroopers, two of whom were Muslim.

Israel today signed on a deal to purchase a 6th German submarine. These submarines have been designed jointly by Israel and the Germans. Germany is paying 1/3 the cost of the sub. The overall purpose of these subs is to provide strategic reach to the Israeli Navy. It has also widely believed that the German Navy provides Israel with an assured second-strike capability. The goal in having six submarines is to be able to have 3 subs deployed on a regular basis. One sub is usually undergoing long-term maintenance, one in short term maintenance, one in training. This will leave three subs available to be deployed.

I hate to defend the European Union's High Representative for Foreign Affairs. However, Catherine Ashton was attacked by Prime Minister Netanyahu for comparing the attack in France and the suffering of Gaza children. However, Israeli TV aired her complete remarks tonight. In her remarks, Ashton said: "When you look around at the terrible events of the past year, the killing in Sweden, the bus accident in Switzerland (last week), the killing in Toulouse yesterday, and the suffering of the children of Gaza and Sderot, we have to begin to listen to children when they speak." Maybe not the most diplomatic statement, but certainly not the worst thing ever said either.

Here is an interesting article in today's Washington Post by Richard Cohen, entitled: Playing for Time Through a Strike on Iran.

 

 

Syrian Revolt ONe Year Old, Missiles Fired on Beersheva

Today marked the first anniversary of the uprising in Syria. Much to everyone's surprise, Assad is still in power. Before this latest uprising many questioned whether it was possible in this day an age, with cell phone cameras and hand-held satellite communication for a dictator to kill his people without terrible consequences. The answer is clearly, yes. The spectacle of Kofi Anan meeting with Assad to negotiate some sort of agreement was almost bloodcurdling.

In the last few days we have seen an increase in the level of brutality in Syria. That brutality is how Assad has survived. He has mamanged to turn the conflict into a Sunni vs. Alwaite contest. As a result, he has received overhwhelming support from his army leadership, all of whom are Alawite. That is why the conflict has become so bloody, with so many disfigured bodies. The brutality in Syria has reached a level of hatred that only religious-ethnic conflicts can achieve. To an Israeli public that has become more and more cynical of Arab intentions, over the course of the past decade, events in Syria are just another nail in the coffin of the dream for peace. The actions of Hamas have of course been most of the other nails. See the article by Carlo Stenger, entitled: "Open Letter to Hamas: You are responsible for your people's fate"

The Israeli press widely covered a story in a Russian newspaper today stating that during her recent visit to Moscow, US Secretary of Stare Hilary Clinton asked the Russians to pass on a message to the Iranians, that either they come to the table with a serious offer to bring their nuclear program under supervision, or they will be bombed by the end of the year. Maybe its just wishful thinking, but Israeli observers are no longer discounting the possibility that the United States might actually attack Iran, if the US became convinced that sanctions had failed.

Since I started writing tonights update three missiles were fired on Beersheva. Two were intercepted and a third fell on an open field. Tomorrow the children of Beersheva will be having another missile day.

I thought our readers might be interested in this story, provided by the US Defense Department called: Rabbi Ministers Across Afghanistan

 

Over 200 Missiles Have Been Fired at Israel

In New York ( accept I gather this year) school kids get snow days. In Southern Israel in the largest cities tomorrow will be the third missile day in the row. School in all the large cities of the South will be closed tomorrow as another expected day of missile fire takes place.. As of this evening over 200 rockets had been fired at Israel over the past four days. Today Iron Dome intercepted 32 of 36 rockets that were fired, a slightly lower rate and rockets did fall on Ashdod Beersheva and Gederot, but no one was seriously injured a damage was limited.
There is talk of a discussion of a ceasefire, although nothing immediate seems to be happening. In Israel there is hope that it will end soon, but there is a great deal less pressure. Once again its thanks to Iron Dome, not only is it physically saving lives, it seems to have changed the moral of the people in the cities under attack. The very fact that there is an active defense and people lives are not left to fate, seems to have changed how people are dealing.
Meanwhile the Palestinians are losing out on three levels. First the frustration at their failure to bring about any casualties, and a secondly the fact that the Arab world does not care. Arab TV networks this time are not very interested I what is going on. Today the attention in the Arab world is still turnd to Syria where 100 people were killed. Finally 16 groups who were firing missiles have been attacked.
Will this end now? Hard to say, the fact is that the Islamic Jihad is the one on the Palestinian side doing the attacking and they supporter: Iran.