Israel

Iran Talks, Syrian Massacre, Egyptian Elections, African Illegals

It took a few days for the fog of the latest meeting between the West and Iran to clear. But now it has and the results seem clear. Despite initial signals that progress had been achieved, it is now clear that no progress, whatsoever, has been achieved. According to American sources the Iranians "have not made any decisions yet on whether they actually plan to negotiate, or just buy time." Real negotiations on their Nuclear program may not be something the Iranian regime is ever willing to conduct. Thus, it may come down, once again, to a question of whether the US will be willing to take action.
The latest massacre in Syria both underscores the willingness of the world to stand by and watch massacres take place, while at the same time, may be an indication that the end of the regime may be near. Yes, it has been said many times that the end of Assad is just around the corner. Yet, 14 months and 9,000 deaths later, Assad is still in power. But this latest massacre and the complete failure of the UN ceasefire to go into effect, may finally be enough to push even his fervent supporters, like Russia, to rethink their position.
The official results from the first round of voting in the Egyptian Presidential elections will not be known for a few days. However, unofficial results have been published. These unofficial results present Egyptians with a stark choice. The top winner was the candidate for the Muslim Brotherhood. The candidate that seems to have come in second is a Nasserite. Interestingly, it seems that if you total all the votes of the candidates for the Egyptian Presidency, the country seems split down the middle between those who want an Islamic state and those that want a secular state.

Finally, a major topic of conversation in Israel over this Shavout weekend remains the question of the African-illegals who are now in Israel. Between 10-15% of Tel Aviv ‘s population are now Africans (this equals between 40 and 60 thousand people). While most claim to be Sudanese refugees, it turns out that 2/3 are Eritrean. The Eritrean Ambassador was interviewed on Israeli TV on Thursday night. The Ambassador stated that Eritrea would not take them back. Tensions have been running high, especially in South Tel Aviv (where most of the refugees live) and, whose presence have been pushing out a largely poor resident population. The city which has allocated increasing funds to educate their children is feeling more and more boxed in. With no real solutions being implemented, the problem is growing every day, as more illegals show up. As I have written before, this is an immensely difficult problem. None the less, one that can no longer be ignored.

African Migrants, Jerusalem Day

Over the weekend the main topic of discussion in the Israeli media has been the problem of the illegal immigrants from Africa that are now populating South Tel Aviv, along with some other locations. Illegal immigrants have continued to pour in to Israel through a still too porous Egyptian border. This renewed interest is a result a few well publicized crimes by the Africans, as well as the rising tide of complaints from the remaining native residents of the area. The government has proposed a number of steps to help address this problem, including: racing towards completion of the border fence between Israel and Sinai, the creation of  a large dentention facility for the illegal immigrants to live in. 
However, the most controversial questions center on whether or not to allow these illegal immigrants to work. One view insists that as long as they can work, they will earn so much more money than they were receiving back in their African homelands, that it will just encourage more illegal immigrants to come. The other view, argued by many, including the commander of Israel’s police, is that it is in our interest to give them work. Since, if they do not work, they will have no choice but to turn to crime to feed themselves.  There is no question that Israel cannot absorb the numbers of illegal immigrants that are here. The best guess is that there are at least 50,000 illegal African migrants living in the country at the moment (with more than half that number likely situated in South Tel Aviv.)  What to do, is unfortunately a significant moral dilemma that begs any simple answer. Today is Jerusalem Day. It is the day we are supposed to commemorate the liberation of East Jerusalem, and the unification of the city 45 years ago.  I have to say, other than a few more radio reports on the state of Jerusalem today, if you do not live in Jerusalem, you would not note any difference between today and any other day. In Israel, after 45 years, the shine has certainly worn off the day.

Yom Hanaqba Cell Phone Rate Drop

Today is May 15th. If Israel celebrated its birthday based on the secular calendar, today would be Israel's Independence Day. (Well sort of, because of Shabbat we actually declared our Independence on May 14th. However that is another story). In Israel, we, of course already celebrated Yom Haatzaut on its Hebrew date. To the Arabs of Israel and the Palestinians– whether refugees or not– this day, May 15th, has always been "Yom HaNaqba", day of the 'disaster'. The 'disaster' being, the birth of the State of Israel, and the subsequent turning of many of them into refugees.

How are we Jews, and even more specifically, we Jews of Israel, supposed to react to their commemoration? This is not a simple question, and it requires a thoughtful answer.

Personally, I am very conflicted on this matter. On one hand, one cannot help but feel some theoretical sympathy for all those who lost their lands, their homes, and/or for those who did not leave, but have been forced to live as a minority in their land.
On the other hand, the very fact that Palestinians still commeroate this day, is at the heart of the conflict. It is the reason that despite whatever actions we are to take, it's unlikely to bring about peace.

In the years immediately following World War II, 50 million refugees were created by shifting borders, in the wake of the creation of newly independent states. The Independence of India and Pakistan, alone, created a migration of 20 million people. But it’s only the Palestinians that still commemorate their "Naqba Day". More importantly, its only the Palestinians who have leaders, who to this day still speak about "the day when the current occupants of the land (us, Jews) will disappear and there will be space for all the refugees. This evening I watched excerpts of a speech by an Islamic leader giving such a speech to children in the Negev.

Maybe our government should launch a major campaign next year around Yom HaNaqba, saying we understand your pain. We are sorry things could not work out the way you would have wished. But, the reason there is a Yom Hanaqba is that your leaders could not agree to compromise. If they would have accepted the UN partition plan, there would have been no Palestinian refugees. There would have been a Palestinian state alongside the Israeli one for 64 years. Is it time now for you to give up your dreams that we will disappear and agree to the compromise that you failed to agree to in 1947? If you do, you will find a generous partner. I doubt it would make any difference- but why not try?

On a more positive note... New competitors have entered the Israel cellular scene and lowered costs dramatically. Already cell phones in Israel were not particularly expensive-- with unlimited plans, including the phone available for around $70/month, including tax. Now, the new competitors are offering unlimited plans, without phones for around $30/month. Tonight there is a spirit of national celebration. Finally something that is really cheap here.

Political Earthquake In Israel

Last night I was planning to write an update on how ridiculous it was to be holding elections in Israel this September. How embarrassing it was to watch the rush to distburse the Knesset quickly before anything could be done, as promised, to replace the "Tal Law". I had also wondered how the Israeli leaders, especially the Prime Minister, could get away with lying so much– Netanyahu first said he did not want elections. Then he called for elections and promised a new law to replace the Tal law, before new elections. Then, he rushed to end the Knesset before the replacement Tal Law could be passed. As luck would have it, last night I was busy finishing a project and decided that I could wait to post an until the law to disband the Knesset was passed-- since nothing was going to change. Imagine my surprise after opening my iPad in bed bright and early this morning and reading that Kadima had joined the coalition and that the September election was off.  After I got over my shock, I came to two conclusions: First, that everything I was about to write about our lying politicians was true, on steroids. Their utter lack of shame is beyond any rational understanding. It is one thing to fudge the truth, or make promises that you are not going to keep. However, to listen to these politicians habitually lie, straight out, is a bit hard take. Even the most veteran political observers were shocked by the extent of this latest round of prevarications. Second, on the other hand, delaying the elections is not a bad thing. In that there was no need to have elections now, and there was no serious opponent to Netanyahu at this point. A year from now, who knows.  However, the problem is two fold. We now have a coalition government made up of over 90 members, which in no way reflects the will of the people. Maybe 55% of the country (in broad strokes) supports the current government, but NOT 80%. Worse, this political move has only served to increase the already high level of cynicism people have towards politics and politicians. Shaul Mofaz who publicly called Bibi a liar, and worse– just weeks ago– entered Netanyahu's government for only one reason... Kadima was going to be destroyed in the next election. I think the number of 10 Knesset seats for Kadima was an optimistic guess. Were there to be elections this coming fall, I would not have been surprised if Kadima disappeared all together.  So with this move, Mofaz ensured that his Knesset members kept their jobs for an extra year. 
Why Netayahu entered into this agreement reamains an enigma. It might just be his cautious nature to delay an election, in which, however good his chances look, might contain surprises. There might be another motive, but that remains unclear.   There is a slight chance we might see a very real change the laws dealing with the drafting of Haredim and changing our system of government will actually take place, since that is what the coaltion deal with Kadima guaranteed. I do not actually believe that will come to pass, but one can hope.  One question asked repeatedly today was whether this sudden move to eliminate virtually opposition the current government has anything to do with a possible attack on Iran. The simple answer seems to be-- not directly. However, today's events probably increased the chance of an Israeli attack on Iran by some measure. One final point. I could not help but be disgusted with the pictures of Natan Eshel, deeply  engaged in the negotiations to bring about this deal. Eshel had been forced to resign from his position as the Director of Prime Minister's Bureau due to his "inappropriate actions to a female employee". At the time, many in Israel were surprised that Netanyhu exhibited his anger at the whistle blowers, and not at Eshel. Obviously, a little misbehavior on his part was not enough to move him from the center of power.

Israeli Elections September 4th

It's almost official. The parties have agreed that the next Israeli elections will be held on September 4th. (note: just as I started writing this piece, it was reported by the army radio that the Shas party objects to the date). It looks like Prime Minister Netanyahu has been planning this move for a while. Otherwise, there is no real reason why there should suddenly be new elections. Yes, the coalition has some tough weather ahead, with the Tal Law replacement and the need to pass a new budget. Despite these challenges, there is no reason to think that the current government could not have made it through. Still, Netanyahu seems to have decided to strike while his public opinion polls are high; and before President Obama possibly becomes re-elected.
Of course, one of the major unknown factors remains the question of whether Foreign Minister Lieberman will be indicted, or not. The State Attorney's office has promised an answer within weeks. They have been investigating the Lieberman file for months– since the police recommended that he be indicted, and after Lieberman has had the opportunity to rebut the charges against him. This is something I can never understand. A decision like this would be made in a matter of hours in the US.
Israel received delivery of its fourth submarine today in Germany. The submarine is said to be capable of carrying nuclear weapons, thus providing Israel with a second strike capability. This is Israel’s fourth advanced sub. There are two more submarines in development, with delivery expected approximately every 2 years. The Germans are covering one third the cost of the subs, which are built in their shipyards.

Big Day in Israeli Politics

Today was a big day in Israeli politics. On one side of the coin, Tzpi Livni, the former Foreign Minister and head of the Kadima party, resigned from the Knesset. That decision was preordained from the moment she lost the Kadima primary battle with Shaul Mofaz. She could not stay in a party led by a man that she clearly cannot stand, and for whom she has no respect.  Unfortunately for her, she failed to connect with the people during last summer's social protest movement. While at the same time, the Labor Party's newly elected head, Shelly Yachmovich, turned the party back to its social economic roots.  With Mofaz as its leader Kadima is already floundering, as I expected.  He is a colorless leader, with no natural leadership qualities.  I expect the Kadima party will totally implode, and have almost no presence after the election. On the other side of the coin, today was the first official conference of the "Yesh Atid" (There is a future) party of Yair Lapid. It was the party's first public gathering, held two days after the party’s registration became official.  Lapid decided to devote the first meeting to a plan he presented for the drafting of Haredim and Arabs, either into the army, or for civil service. I have not seen enough details of the program at the moment to comment. There is no question that Lapid is charismatic and he will be a force in this election. With the Israeli electorate so much in flux, anything is possible. Today was also the day that the State Controller released his annual report. The report is 1,800 pages long and criticizes a whole host of areas. I hope to get an actual copy of the report. However, in the meantime, one area covered in the report that has received some publicity, and is very troubling, is the actions of the Army Rabbis.  According to the report instead of dealing solely with issues such as: Kashrut at army bases, they have become an active Kiruv organization.  So much so, that when units want to have retreats the Rabbanut of the Army (with the help of American donor organizations) is able to organize free or nominal cost weekends for units. Other potential organizers of these events (e.g. the Army Education Corp) are unable to compete.  
Any one want to start an American Friends of the Education Corps... to help fund alternative retreat opportunities for Israeli soldiers?

Diskin on Netanyahu, Elections Coming in October

Two issues have dominated Israel’s news today. The first item being the statement of the former head of the Shin Bet about the Netanyahu government, and the second item on the sudden onset of elections. On Friday a tape of the former head of the Shin Bet (Israel’s internal security services) came to light criticizing Netanyahu and Barak. Yuval Diskin who retired a year ago stated that Netanyahu and Barak's views on attacking Iran were wrong.  Diskin further stated they felt Netanyahu and Barak were being driven by a Messianic needs to consider attacking Iran. He adding that an attack on Iran was something that Israel should not do alone and that it was too soon to consider such an attack. On a different front, Diskin stirred the pot further by saying that the Netanyahu government has done nothing to advance peace with the Palestinians, and has no interest in doing so.
The speech created the expected outcry by Likud ministers, rallying to support Netanyahu. The most important point, however, is that with Diskin's public statement is one of many.  All of the  prior heads of the security establishment, the head of the Mossad, the Shin Bet, the Chief of Staff and the former Head of Military Intelligence are on record, in their agreement opposing any imminent attack on Iran. All of these security chiefs have been replaced. According to those "in the know", the new heads of the same agencies are no more in accord with Netanyahu’s stated position than their predecessors. That certainly seems to be the case with the current Chief of Staff, who gave an interview last week stating clearly that Israel has plenty of time to act regarding Iran. Beside all of substantive points this is Netanyahu's worse political nightmare, with elections imminent this is almost an exact reply of 1999 when all of the then leaders of the Security Establishment came out against Netanyahu. Elections seem almost certain to be on theimediate  horizon, most likely in October. A government that was one of the most stable in Israel’s history is likely to go to new elections, primarily over a replacement for the "Tal Law".  There are other factors at work as well, including what looks like the great difficulty in passing a new budget (which has been reported will require significant budget cuts) 
Still, the main issue remains the need to replace the Tal Law. In an election year, after last summer's social protest, whose underlying current was the need for equalizing the burden on citizens, each party is trying to out do each other in their calls for a law that institutes universal service without exemptions. Over the weekend, Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman was very clear that he is willing to bring down the government in order to pass his version of a law, forcing universal service on the Haredim. Then today, in a surprise move, Prime Minister Netanyahu met with leaders of the protest movement and promised to lead the charge to inact a law that will bring about universal service. Who will gain politically from all of this in an election is still unclear. However, as I wrote when the Supreme Court struck down the Tal Law, the unique confluence of the Supreme Court decision, the fact that this was going to be an election year, and last summer's protest movement, may have brought about a moment a profound change in the relations between Haredim and the rest of the Israeli population. 
I am glad I live in Tel Aviv, and not in Jerusalem, since I do not expect the Haredim to accept these sort of changes without putting up a tremendous fight.

Israel a 64

It's Yom HaZikaron in Israel, the day the memories of the 22,993 soldiers and civilians killed in Israel wars are remembered. Yom Hazikaron comes one week after Yom Hashoa. While both these days are memorialized in similar ways, today seemed different, more earnest, more immediate. This afternoon resturaunts began closing. By this evening there was not a store, not a restaurant, not a Kiosk open anywhere in sight in central Tel Aviv.
Tonight we went to Rabin Square to attend an annual commemoration, known as "Singing in the Square". This event that has been taking place in Tel Aviv now for 15 years. As Tel Aviv's Mayor Ron Huldai stated: "Through these songs sung together, Tel Aviv, the cradle of modern Zionism has added this new set of Piyyutim (liturgical poems), as part of our tradition, as part of how we memorialize the fallen. "
By 45 minutes before the ceremony was to begin, the square was already nearly full. When the two-minute siren that marks the beginning of Yom Hazikaron was sounded the tens of thousands of people in the square stood in complete and total silence. 45 minutes later the actual ceremony began. By then, nearly 100,000 had packed the square and the area immediately around it. The event alternated from poems written by or written about fallen soldiers, interspersed with video footage of their families telling vignettes sharing part of their life story. Between each soldier's story there was a sad song sung by one of Israel’s leading artists in honor of the fallen. Other than the occasional whispered singing along of the songs by the audience, silence was the order of the night, throughout this crowd of 100,000 people.
This event and the stories were moving well beyond my abilities as a wordsmith. It will have to suffice to say that sharing the event with a crowd, made up mostly of my fellow citizens of Tel Aviv, was an honor. Never has the chasm between Israel and diaspora Jewry seemed so large.

Yom Hazikaron in Israel

It's Yom HaZikaron in Israel, the day the memories of the 22,993 soldiers and civilians killed in Israel wars are remembered. Yom Hazikaron comes one week after Yom Hashoa. While both these days are memorialized in similar ways, today seemed different, more earnest, more immediate. This afternoon resturaunts began closing. By this evening there was not a store, not a restaurant, not a Kiosk open anywhere in sight in central Tel Aviv.
Tonight we went to Rabin Square to attend an annual commemoration, known as "Singing in the Square". This event that has been taking place in Tel Aviv now for 15 years. As Tel Aviv's Mayor Ron Huldai stated: "Through these songs sung together, Tel Aviv, the cradle of modern Zionism has added this new set of Piyyutim (liturgical poems), as part of our tradition, as part of how we memorialize the fallen. "
By 45 minutes before the ceremony was to begin, the square was already nearly full. When the two-minute siren that marks the beginning of Yom Hazikaron was sounded the tens of thousands of people in the square stood in complete and total silence. 45 minutes later the actual ceremony began. By then, nearly 100,000 had packed the square and the area immediately around it. The event alternated from poems written by or written about fallen soldiers, interspersed with video footage of their families telling vignettes sharing part of their life story. Between each soldier's story there was a sad song sung by one of Israel’s leading artists in honor of the fallen. Other than the occasional whispered singing along of the songs by the audience, silence was the order of the night, throughout this crowd of 100,000 people.
This event and the stories were moving well beyond my abilities as a wordsmith. It will have to suffice to say that sharing the event with a crowd, made up mostly of my fellow citizens of Tel Aviv, was an honor. Never has the chasm between Israel and diaspora Jewry seemed so large.

Egypt Cuts Gas Contract to Israel

Last night the Egyptians announced they will cancel their gas agreement with Israel. They will no longer supply Israel with natural gas, which is used to power Israel’s electric power plants (note: all but one has a oil backup). Politicians on both side of the border were quick to say that it was only a commercial dispute and had no political importance. As much as it would be nice to believe that, it’s simply not true. On one hand, no commercial company would take such action without a green light from the Egyptian government. More importantly, every one of the candidates for Egyptian President has called for the cancellation of this agreement.
Unfortunately, we have to look forward to the situation with Egypt getting worse for the foreseeable future. The success of the Islamists in Egypt and elsewhere does not bode well. One of the most destructive developments over the past twenty years has been the increasing conversion of our conflict with the Palestinians into a religious, as opposed to, a nationalist dispute. Part of the Israeli-Palestinian dispute has always been religious, but that aspects has grown dramatically over the past twenty years, both our side and theirs. And religion rarely condones compromise– certainly not recently, regardless of which religion it is.

The results of an international poll show Israelis to be the 14th happiest people on earth--- much to the surprise of most Israelis. It’s hard to see how a people who are always complaining, forced to do extended military service, and who may be faced with existential threats could be so happy. One theory I heard recently states that Israelis tend to maintain extended families, and there are few places in Israel that are too far for the family to get together for Shabbat dinner. That may be part of it, but I believe there is something else at work here. There is a connectedness that exists here that exists in very few places. In Israel there is a since of belonging to something bigger than ourselves. In my opinion, it is that connectedness, coupled with a sense of greater purpose that is the secret to Israeli happiness.