Israel

Tal Law Dies, Assad Wife Fails to Flee

Today was the day the "Tal Law" officially came to an end. Prime Minister Netanyahu announced to a group of protesting veterans, that he no longer supports the extension of the Tal Law, but something has to come in its place, so as not to divide the nation. Six months exists before the law ends. What can come in place of the Tal Law is very unclear. For the first time in a long time Charedi coalition members found themselves alone, with no support for passage of one of their most important laws.
In Syria, Assad's troops seem to be fighting back and regaining some of the ground they lost around the capital yesterday. But many think this is just a short term victory. There are a number of accounts that Assad’s wife tried to leave yesterday for the safety of exile, but the rebels cut off the route to the airport, trapping her in Damascus, for the moment. The future is clear. From what we are seeing in Lebanon, politicians are scrambling to try to position themselves for a Lebanon that is no longer dominated by Assad and the Syrians.

Chaos in Netanyahu's Office, Tal Law, The End of Assad?

For the last few days Israeli news has been dominated by what is being called "The Eshel Affair". That affair began as charges of harassment were leveled against the head of Prime Minister's office, Natan Eshel. It is alleged Eshel harassed a female employee. What is particulary unusual about the charge is that it was not the alleged victim that brought the charges, but, instead, three senior advisors of Netanyahu; including his Military attaché. Eshel has now gone on a vacation while the affair is being investigated by the government Workers' Authority. Whatever the results of the investigation, the current group of Netanyahu's close advisors are unlikely to be able to work together again.
A major issue that dominated Israeli discourse over this past weekend has been the question of the extension of the "Tal" Law. The law officially provides for the exemption of Charedim who study in Yeshiva from Army service. When the law was originally passed there was hope the law would result in additional Charedim would opt to join the army. While the number of Charedi IDF soldiers has increased slightly, that amount has been overwhelmed by the overall demographic growth of the Charedi community. Prime Minister Netanyahu had planned to routinely pass a five-year extension of the Tal law. That plan was torpedoed when Yisrael Beitunu made it clear it would not vote for any extension. A public storm of protest over the extension followed.
At the end of last week a protest tent went up in Tel Aviv demonstrating against any extension of the law. Some, both inside, as well as outside of the government made a radical suggestion to continue exempting Charedim from army service, but insist the majority leave their Yeshivot and join the tax paying work force. This suggestion may be practical. However, its unfairness to the population that does serve is so clear, that there is no chance that it could ever gain support. I think events in the last few weeks may have made the passage of an extension of the Tal Law all but impossible. I also believe that a connection is finally being made between the social events of the summer and the extent of the cost of the Charedim to Israeli society.
This morning as the protest tents came down there was a well organized demonstration by a group of youngsters giving out bumper stickers that said: "Power to the People".

There were about 100 youngsters spread throughout the ares with placards. They were unwilling to say more than "we believe in bringing about change and that change will make this a better place." Details to follow. I have no way of knowing what or who is behind this, but Yair Lapid comes to mind. Lapid, by the way, has been very quiet except on his Facebook page. There, he seems to answer most posts to his wall. If you can read Hebrew its worth reading http://www.facebook.com/YairLapid
Events in Syria may be coming to a head. The “Free Army of Syria" seems to be gaining strength, capturing a number of the suburbs of Damascus. The protests in Syria now seem to be a full fledged Civil War. This is a war Assad cannot win, for it now seems to have become Sunni vs. Alawite. The Alawites make up less than 10% of the country. More and more army units are defecting to the rebels, and unlike the Libyan rebel groups, who were untrained militias, the Syrian rebel units seem to be fully trained former Syrian units.
Meanwhile, here in Tel Aviv, they put a fake ice skating rink on the boardwalk of the Old Port. Up North the Hermon is open for skiing.

Europe Takes Strong Action Against Iran, Syria: the Bloodshed Continues

Yesterday the European Union passed the strongest sanction in its history. Those sanctions were aimed at stopping the Iranain nuclear program. While until now it was easy to say that the world was not taking the Iranian actions seriously enough, that would be hard to say today. The actions of the Union to stop importing oil from Iran (no new oil contracts will be signed and all current contracts must end by June) is very real and risky. It both carries the very real risk that the Iranians will do something that is not very logical, (for example, close the Straits of Hormuz.) In addition, Europe will have to replace the oil it currently receives from Iran.

Why have the Europeans been leading the charge when it comes to Iran? Most observers have stated it is because Europe is physically closer to Iran and deeply fears Iranian missiles. Another view is that the rise of Islam is a very real fear on the streets of Europe, and remains a much more academic concern in the US. While both of these facts are true, I think there is another fact at work as well. In reading some of the American discussions on whether to accept the fact there will be an Iranian bomb, I have noticed an almost passive acceptance of the risk to Israel. Many have basically said that while the risk is real that Iran will attack Israel with nuclear weapons and bring about a second holocaust, that is a small and acceptable risk. I am not enthusiastic about an Israeli attack on Iran. I am certainly happy that I do not have to make this sort of decision. However, sitting in downtown Tel Aviv writing this piece, it is impossible for me to accept the type of reasoning that accepts the fact an Iranian bomb might be used is "an acceptable risk." I am glad that the Europeans agree. It is true that America has been a greater supporter of Israel over the years. Yet I believe, despite that fact, the Europeans take the possibility of a second holocaust more seriously than the Americans do.

Yesterday the Arabs League's observers of Syria gave their report. The report was an interesting farce. The chief observer being a Sudanese General who is wanted in the Hague for war crimes. He claimed that since the arrival of the observers violence is way down. This is a down right lie. In fact, violence keeps rising. Yesterday the Foreign Minister of Qatar called for Assad to step down. What may ultimately bring the end of Assad's regime is the fact that more and more of his army are defecting every day.

Another worthwhile link from Jeffrey Goldberg in the Atlantic How Nuclear War Would Start in the Middle East

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Soldiers Can't Travel on Trains on Sunday Morning, Muslin Clerics Call for the Death of Jews

The news in Israel today was dominated by a strange decision of the government to no longer allow soldiers to ride the railroads on Sunday mornings for free. The reason for the change was that the trains had become severely overcrowded on Sunday mornings. Instead, alternative buses were added as a substitute mode of free transportation for soldiers. To say this decision was not met with understanding is an understatement. As a parent of a soldier who is directly affected, I understand the anger. The odd thing, again, is the total tone deafness of the government towards popular sentiments regarding their actions. In the wake of the summer's protest, the government does not understand what will happen. I will pay for my daughter to take the train. Thankfully, I can afford to pay. However, once again, the children of those who can not afford to pay will have to get up even earlier and travel longer to get to their army bases on time.

The other major news story is that of a sermon by the current Mufti of Jerusalem. The Mufti gave a speech at a Fatah rally quoting one of the Hadith of Mohammad on why its good to kill Jews. The speech, parts of which were posted online, has caused quite a stir. Mufti Muammad Hussein claims he was quoted out of context, you can decide.

This comes on top of a speech by a leading Egyptian Salafist, Hazem Shuman, who called for the extermination of the Jews. (See Egyptian Cleric Calls For the Extermination of the Jews). There are days when it's hard for me to try to understand what reality I live in. On one hand, on a day-to-day basis, I worry about the first story, living on a block where there are coffee houses that are packed until the wee hours of the night right around the corner. On the other hand, less than 50 miles from where I live, there is a cleric whose statements about Jews can give Hitler a run for his money. In addition, in Egypt, a few hundred miles away, Islamists have now won control over 70% of the parliament. I am not sure I can fully come to grips with these very contradictory elements of life. I guess the very fact that I have a daughter serving in the army, who is, for the moment at least, carrying around an M-16, reminds me that however wonderful Tel Aviv may be, this is not Miami Beach after all.

 

Cyber Attack on Israeli Sites, More Strife With Ultra Orthodox, Local Government Strike

The Israeli news was dominated today by stories of a online computer attack organized by a Saudi hacker on Israeli institutions. Today the hacker and his accomplices managed to shut down both the El Al web site and the website of the Israeli stock exchange for a short period. Today’s attack was a simple "denial of service" attack. This sort of attack is accomplished by overloading the server with thousands of "hits". The servers themselves were not breeched. However, it was embarrassing that Israel, with some of the leading security companies in the world, seems so vulnerable. Today Israeli banks announced that for the moment they were limiting online banking access to customers trying to connect from within Israel.
A strange strike started today in Israel. The local governments (not their employees) called a strike today. Why? The local governments called a strike because the central government is cutting back support to the cities and forcing them to spend money on additional mandates. The Netanyahu government found a way to raise money to pay for its agenda, without raising taxes or cutting back on defense... They chose to just take the money from the city governments and force them to raise taxes. As a result, today there was no garbage pickup in the cities, no school buses (however, schools were generally open, though not for special ed. students). On the plus side, there were no parking tickets given out today. It’s not clear how long the strike will last.
The rifts between the Charedi world and the rest of the Jewish Israelis continued to boil over the course of the last few days. Yesterday a group of Charedi leaders, well respected in the Charedi community, were arrested and accused of allegedly stealing money that was donated to charitable causes and spending it themselves. Parts of the Charedi community were incensed that the police would dare arrest anyone from their community. A group of Charedim held small riots, both in Jerusalem and in Bet She mesh, demanding the firing of the Jerusalem police chief. The problem has extended beyond these arrests, with continued incidents in Bet Shemesh-- punctuated by Charedi kids literally attacking (throwing stones at) modern orthodox kids (9 year olds). It’s really hard to believe.
Tensions continue to mount between the United States and Iran. Iran continues to warn that it will block the Straits of Hormuz, if the Europeans go ahead with their oil sanctions. The United States is taking the Iranian threat to close the straits very seriously. President Obama sent a warning letter to the leader of the Iran, in four different ways. In the letter it is believed Obama warned the Iranians that an attempt to close the Straits of Hormuz would be considered an act of war.  It’s not clear that the Iranians are being deterred.

Another Iranian Scientist Killed- Ethiopian Jews in Israel

Another Iranian scientist was killed this week. This time, the Iranians admitted the assassination occurred and blamed Israel for the attack. It's clear that someone is systematically killing Iranians scientists. Fourth Iranian scientists have already been killed. Will the elimination of these scientists, coupled with the other underground actions stop the Iranian nuclear program? Probably not. However, the program's progress has certainly been slowed. Iran expected to be much further with its nuclear program. This is what all the earlier analysis predicted. Now, it appears the sustained efforts have suddenly, and finally born some fruit.  In the past week attention has been directed towards discrimination directed against the Ethiopian Jewish community in Israel. First, let's be frank. Discrimination against Ethiopians clearly exists in Israel. In addition, it is not clear if the situation of the Ethiopians is getting any better. The plight of the Ethiopians has probably not been helped by the addition of all the illegal migrants from Africa. These african migrants have overwhelmed places like South Tel Aviv in the past two years. However, today in the Knesset , the Minister of Absorption, (a member of Lieberman's "Israel Beyteinu" party) took the discourse to a new low. (Well I am not sure this represents a new low, since the day before yesterday another member of Lieberman's party threw a cup of water at an Arab member of the Knesset). The minister stood up in the Knesset and told the Ethiopians they should simply stop complaining. Furthermore, the minister added that she had been an immigrants, and immigrant should be thankful to Israel for taking them in.

I must say that the Absorption Ministry, under the supervision of Sofa Landver seems to reflects her views. In the past three months, our family has had to deal with a large cross section of the Israeli bureaucracy. Although there have been some challenges, we found that in almost every case people were sympathetic. The various ministry employees tried to be helpful. They did their best to solve each problem. The place we have repeatedly found the most difficulty, and the least helpful has been the Ministry of Absorption. (Though, so far our problems have been dealt with). The ministry seems to have picked up the attitude of its Minister: Immigrants should be thankful we let them in to Israel. 
 A friend posted a link to this interview with the noted Israeli historian, Yehuda Bauer, by, of all places, Aljazeera: http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/talktojazeera/2012/01/20121774656322518.html
 I must say, I have read many of his books over the years. However, I had never heard him speak in person until two weeks ago (when he spoke at the commermoration for "Moreshet", a Journal of Holocaust studies.)  It was one of the most brilliant lectures I remember hearing. In it, Bauer covered two very important topics: "Why did World War II happen?" He maintains WWII happened because Hitler wanted to destroy the Jews; and "Could America really do anything to stop the Holocaust?" Bauer believes that answer is "No".

Yair Lapid To Enter Politics- Free Education for 3-4 Year Olds

The Israeli political system received a shock today, when something expected happened... but just not at the expected time. Channel 2’s well known anchor, Yair Lapid, announced he was resigning from the TV station to become involved in politics. Lapid’s hand was forced by the plan to pass a law to bar journalists from entering politics for one year from the time they leave journalism. This law, which has yet to pass, is known unofficially as "The Yair Lapid Law", since it was aimed specifically at him. The "Lapid law" is similar to the law passed two years ago aimed at Gabi Ashkenazi which required top military officials to refrain from entering politics for four years from the end of their military service.

Yair Lapid has out maneuvered his opponents by resigning now. Since the law has not passed yet, it will not apply to Lapid retroactively (at least not in any act that will stand up to court approval).
Why should anyone care? The main reason to care comes to light in a poll taken last week. The recent poll shows Lapid’s new party getting 15–20 seats in the next election. Such success would potentially make the new party the second largest party after Likud. More interesting, those same polls show that with Lapid’s party in the race, the parties of the left and center have a large enough majority to block a Likud government.
Yair Lapid, is the the son of Tommy Lapid, (founder of the Shinui party, whose platform was fiercely secular and anti-Charedi), has many of the same beliefs as his father. However, Yair is considered much more nuanced in his views. Clearly he is on the left center of the political spectrum. An interesting exercise if Kadima, Labor, and Lapid's new party ran together would they get more or less votes?
The government just passed a law providing funding for a law passed long ago to provide free education for all children between ages 3 and 4 years of age. The money is going to come from across the board budget cuts, except from the ministries controlled by Shas. Apparently their ministries will not be cut. This sounds like progress, but does anyone want to guess who make up the majority of 3-4 year olds in Israel?

Actions Taking Against Iran, Charedim vs Israeli Society

It looks like the United States and the EU are actually taking the maximum action possible to pressure Iran into stopping its nuclear program. The EU has decided to ban the purchase of Iranian oil, while President Obama has signed a bill that will force almost every company in the world to choose whether they want to do business with Iran or the United States. These are finally sanctions that may be strong enough to change the Iranian's minds. Of course, it is not clear that the Iranians are capable of acting rationally. Yesterday’s threat by the Iranian Chief of Staff warning the US not to send an aircraft carrier back through the Straits of Hormuz, was one of the most irrational statements I have heard in a long time. There are only two options: one, he is bluffing. However, this is a bluff that the US Navy will call in short order. Alternatively, he really plans to attack a US Carrier Task Force. Let's assume the worst case scenario: Iran could succeed in the attack and actually sink a US warship in international territory. That would be a very clear act of war against the US; an act that could only be responded to by all out war. Do the Iranians really want that? Is it possible they do not understand Americans enough to understand the consequences? It is possible they do not understand, since the US did not attack in 1979 when the hostages were taken. The questions that surround relations between the Charedi world and the rest of Israeli society continued today. It was announced last night that the Chief Rabbi of the Air Force, who was in charge of the special project to integrate a small number of Charedim into the IDF, was resigning. The Chief Rabbi claimed he was forced to resign as a result of the fact that promises were not being kept relating to keeping the Charedi soldiers away for all contact with woman. It is my sense the conflict may have finally reached a point that will not fade away quickly. The secular society has finally woken up to the fact that time is running out. I was speaking to a cab driver the other day and he asked me: Do you realize that Charedim pay nothing for education for nursery school? and that they do not pay Arnona (property tax), since they do not work? They do not pay anything for medical insurance, or most things that the average Israeli pays. The cab driver, a native born Israeli, in his 50’s, seemed genuinely shocked at these facts he had discovered over the previous weeks. Now as soon as Israeli society realizes the connection between what they were protesting over the summer and the resources that the Charedi world consumes we might really see a national revolt on the subject. The government coalition, which for a while, seemed like such a well oiled machine, has shown more and more signs of discord in the past few weeks. The latest sign of dissonance cropped up over an attempt to pass a law that would invalidate the selection of the judicial appointment committee by the bar association. The ultimate attempt is to make sure Likud supporters are the majority on the committee (that committee is about to select new Supreme Court Judges) and not supporters of the current, more liberal Supreme Court Chief Justice, Dorit Beinisch. The general goal of maintaining conservative control of the Supreme Court is supported by most of the coalition (and certainly by most of the Likud members). The initial plan had been to pass a law regulating how the Bar Association voted... before it voted. However, the government could not get that vote passed in time. The Bar Association voted two new representatives to the committee, both of whom are considered supporters of the current Supreme Court Chief Justice. Now, after the bar association has already voted an attempt was made to pass a law to invalidate that vote. The deputy legal advisor to the government came out in the Knesset against this tactic, saying it violates the norms of democracy to invalidate a vote retroactively. Despite the deputy legal advisor's plea, the Knesset was going to go ahead anyway, until there was a near revolt among the major Likud Ministers: Dan Meridor, Gideon Saar, and Limor Livnat (all of whom are lawyers). While these ministers may or may not support the goal of stacking the court with judges who better reflect the Likud's views, they could stomach such a violation of due process. As a result, the law has been tabled for a least a week.

Charedim Demonstrate Killing Continues in Syria

While much of the world was celebrating the New Year last night, in Israel Charedim demonstrated against what they claimed was a campaign to exclude and persecute them. They even went as far as to dress up their kids as holocaust victims with yellow stars. It's not clear to me how much Israelis are disgusted or just trying to understand what planet these people are from? Some of the Charedi demonstrations were in support of the Charedi man arrested for demanding that a young woman soldier in Jerusalem move to the back of the bus.
Israel and the Palestinian authority will be engaging in some limited negotiations this coming week. Do not expect them to amount to much. Meanwhile, the killing continues in Syria. I do not believe many Israeli observers believe that Assad will be able to continue holding on to power.
Israel lost one of its original cultural icons today Yaffa Yarkoni. Yarkoni was 86. Her most famous songs go back to Israel's War of Independence.
Finally, if you are flying on El Al Airlines, beware. Two months ago El Al started limiting baggage on the NY-Tel Aviv route to one bag. Now they are giving incentives to ground clerks who can bring in the most revenue by catching overweight bags.