Israel

Three Years Since Lebanon War

Today marks the third anniversary of the start of Israel’s second Lebanon War. This morning bereaved families from the war attended a ceremony at the Lebanese border marking its anniversary. This evening the official national commemoration was held at Mt. Herzl in Jerusalem. At the ceremony Defense Minister Barak stated: "It has only been three years, but it feels like ages. The war is still present in the collective Israeli consciousness, in the form of an eye-opening wake up call. For you, the war represents a terrible breaking point, after which nothing can ever be the same."

For the IDF the second war in Lebanon was a wake up call, brought about due to the lessons learned through the loss of 121 soldiers. As a result of the lessons of Lebanon, in Gaza this past winter casualties were very low. The question of whether there were any other gains from the Lebanon war is still contested. There are those who argue the recent Hezbollah losses in the Lebanese election were partly a result of Israel’s success in the war. There is probably a grain of truth in that argument.

The Chairman of the Joint Chief of Staff gave disturbing testimony to Congress yesterday, stating on one hand the time for diplomatic negotiations with Iran over their nuclear program was running out. At the same time, he criticized any potential military attack on Iran. His testimony seemed to say the US was ready to accept a nuclear armed Iran, since he did not give another option. We are beginning to see a potentially disturbing trend in the Obama foreign policy- an over reliance on negotiations. There seems to be a sense in the administration the President can solve almost any problem with dialogue he directs. I doubt the North Koreans, the Iranians or even the Syrians are taking this seriously.

Israel and Iran, Netanyahu Zig Zags on Economic Matters

The Israeli news yesterday recounted foreign reports of the passage of an Israeli sub through the Suez Canal and the reported approval of the Saudis to allow Israeli aircraft to use their airspace should it attack Iran. The story of the Israeli submarine was confirmed by Israeli sources, while the Saudi agreement was dismissed by officials. Both leaks were clearly designed to send the message Israel was willing to take action against Iran. At the same time, Israeli media heavily covered the remarks by US Vice President Biden stating Israel was free to attack Iran, if it was convinced it was in Israel’s vital interest, even if the US disagreed. This was seen by many in Israel as a green light for an attack. With events in such a flux in Iran, Israel is trying to insure nobody forgets the issue of the Iranian bomb. Despite all of the events in Iran in the last few weeks, there is no doubt work on the bomb was continued.  What is not clear, is what effect the events will have on the militaristic foreign policy of the country.  It could go either way.

Netanyahu was, once again, proven to be a leader who will cave in on a political issue when the pressure gets high. One of the key features of the Netanyahu economic plan was imposing Value Added Tax on Vegetables and Fruits. This was designed to help pay for Netanyahu’s planned tax cuts for individuals and for corporations. There was criticism of the plan as “VAT” is a regressive tax and would hurt to poorest.  Shas has been a vocal critic of the plan. In recent days Shas has threatened to pull out of the coalition if the tax law was passed.  As of this afternoon, Netanyahu insisted the plan would go forward.  This evening he announced the plan was cancelled.

Merkel Calls For Freeze on Settlements

The major news in Israel today was the report of the foreign policy speech delivered yesterday to the German parliament by German Chancellor Angela Merkel. In the speech, Merkel called on Israel to stop building in the settlements, stating that the building was an obstacle to a two state solution. Merkel joins a long list of world leaders who have called for an end to Israel’s building in the settlements. Minister Benny Begin, a strong supporter of continued settlement growth was interviewed on London and Kirshenbaum tonight. Begin was asked whether Israel shouldn’t respond positively to this growing worldwide request. Begin’s answer, as expected, was a clear no. On one level, he said, no one should be able to tell Jews where in the Land of Israel Jews can build. He then went on to make the argument that the main problem is that the Palestinians see the two state solution as a first stage, in a larger overall plan; and he went on to make the argument I mentioned earlier in the week (that if the Palestinians were unwilling to accept the offer of former PM Olmert, they would never be willing to reach peace.)

There was an interesting op-ed article in today’s Wall Street Journal by Alan Dershowitz, entitled: “Has Obama Turned Against Israel. ” Dershowitz’s opinion is that as long as Obama does not change US policy regarding such matters as the Iranian bomb his pressure on Israel regarding the settlements is not a real change of policy.

There is also an interesting article in the New York Times by Richard Cohen, entitled: “Let Usurpers Writhe. ” Cohen spent the last few months calling on the US government to engage the Iranians. In this article he has dramatically changed his position.

Netanyahu and Sarkozy

The new in Israel today was dominated by yesterday’s story that French President strongly suggested Netanyahu remove Lieberman from being Foreign Minister. The furor was caused by the fact Netanyahu had not said anything to Lieberman about Sarkozy’s comment; rather Lieberman heard the statement from news reports. Netanyahu issued a statement that he had full confidence in Lieberman. Rumors have begun to circulate that if Lieberman is indicted, which most people expect, Aryeh Deri, the former Shas minister will be asked to become Foreign Minister. Deri was convicted of public corruption and spent a couple of years in jail, but that should not stand in the way of his appointment as Israel’s ambassador to the world.

In Washington, Defense Minister Barak met with Senator Mitchell to try to negotiate an agreement on the settlements. Progress was said to have been made. The Netanyahu government is trying to deflect the question of who has been standing in the way of peace-- the Palestinians. They have referred to the negotiations that took place with the Olmert government, in which the Palestinians were offered between 96-98 pct of the west Bank after territory exchange, and still said no. This does follow a pattern that goes back to Camp David, that nothing seems enough to them.

In the meantime, negotiations between Fatah and Hamas continue. The Egyptians set a firm deadline of July 7th for the completion of those negotiations. That deadline was extended today to the last week of July. Very few observers believe the negotiations can succeed.

Ministers Sentenced Iran Continued

The Israeli news today was dominated by the sentencing of former Minister of Finance Hirschson to five years and five months in jail for his actions before becoming entering the ministry. This was the longest time that a former minister has ever been sentenced to jail for. Coincidently, former Minister Ben Ezri had his sentence for corruption extended by the high court of Justice from one and half years to four years. I am not one of those who have been highly critical of Israel’s Supreme Court, but actually extending the sentence seems a little odd.

Israel Prime Minister Netanyahu is in Paris tonight as part of his diplomatic offensive that follows his speech last week. Netanyahu is reportedly worried that he has not been able to make any progress with the Obama administration on resolving his differences over the settlements. The Obama administration seems unwilling to budge on the issue.

Demonstrations continue in Iran against the government. This is despite a brutal crackdown. It is still impossible to determine what the end result of the events in Iran will be, but whatever the short term outcome, the Middle East has been surprisingly transformed by the events. Interestingly, I have been in Israel for only a few hours and it seems to be getting less attention than it was getting in the news in the United States. Arguably, events that are taking place in Iran are probably more important to Israel than to anyone else besides the Iranian people.

Iran Week Two

It’s now been over a week and the demonstrations continue in Teheran. On Friday the “Supreme Leader” of Iran stated that the demonstrations should end. The fact they did not, transformed the demonstrations from a call to challenge the results of the elections to a call demanding a regime change. The regime is not ready to be changed so quickly, so it remains unclear where the demonstrations will all head. Once again, the world's intellegience agencies have been proven unable to (in any way) predict events. Early last week the head of Mossad stated the demonstrations would peter out in a few days. The American services were no better. Nothing will ever be the same in Iran, since the fundamental internal legitimacy of the regime will forever be in doubt. As one article in Haaretz stated, Which Iran is Israel supposed to bomb? Clearly, Iran is not monolithic in any way.

These event do not call for a Pollyanna moment. We could see the clerics striking out against the US or Israel in the coming days, hoping to promote a reaction that would unite the country. The future is unknown. How willing will the police be to open fire on the protestors? How willing will the protestors be to risk their lives? Only time will tell. However, one thing is certain, the future is not what we expected only a few weeks ago. There has been a fundamental change in Iran. Fundamental Islam's rise is suddenly not a sure thing. In fact, it now finds itself under serious assault.

Turnoil in Iran Continues

The demonstrations in Iran continued today. In defiance of the ban on further demonstrations, hundreds of thousands turned out to the streets of Teheran. The “defeated” candidates called on the people to keep coming out until their demands for a new elections are met. It is not clear how far the demonstrators and their leaders are willing to go, but there seems to be a sense that what started out as demonstrations against a possibly fixed election are turning into demands for fundamental change in Iran. This has clearly caught the clerics by surprise, and some observers believe that they are willing to bail on Ahmadinejad to save the Islamic republic. Whether that happens and if there will be fundamental change in Iran is still the big unknown, but the drama of the events taking place in Iran is unlikely to end anytime soon.

Secretary of State Clinton met with Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs Lieberman yesterday. She made it clear that the United States wants the settlement construction ended. Lieberman stated that was impossible. A compromise may be in the works, but its not guaranteed.

The Wall Street Journal had an excellent editorial today. It attacked the Palestinians for being as critical as they were of Netanyahu's speech. It is clear that they hoped by attacking it President Obama would become convinced that the speech did not go far enough and exert additional pressure20on Netanyahu.

Iran Day Three- Paris Air Show

Today marked the third day of massive demonstrations in Iran for and against the government. The government had outlawed demonstrations against the results of the elections, but the opposition organized a demonstration attended by hundreds of thousands. Meanwhile, the government has done the most it can to limit the flow of information and has banned foreign coverage of the demonstrations. Observers are divided as to where unrest is headed. The head of Israel’s Mossad spy agency stated he believed the demonstrations would peter our after a few days. Other observers believe there are fundamental changes taking place in Iran. They believe the clerics are now divided and some are supporting the opposition. At the moment, everything is fluid, and it's impossible to know how this will unfold in the coming days.

The Paris Air show opened yesterday. Israel has one of the largest pavilions at the show. Reports are that despite the worldwide economic down turn, Israel is expecting to see an increase in its current exports of arms, which stood last year at $6 Billion. The two weapons systems that are receiving the most attention are Israel’s anti missile systems and its newest generations of drones, that includes an unmanned helicopter, designed to evacuate wounded troops from a high intensity battlefield.

Turnoil in Iran Reactions to Netanyahu Speech

The streets of Teheran were filled with demonstrators today. The total number of demonstrators is unknown, but there were hundreds of thousands of people in the streets of Teheran, with large numbers in other cities as well. Their calls: "down with the dictator", harkens back to the original Iranian revolution. The question is what happens now? In the past, the moderates have always backed down in the face of conservative opponents. This time may be different. The stealing of the election by the supporters of Ahmadinejad has removed any legitimacy the current regime had with the people of Iran. Until now the veneer of democracy gave an outlet to the people. It gave them some sense their voices mattered. By removing that cover the people of Iran have woken up to find they are living in a "run of a mill" dictatorship. Today the leading opponent, Hussein Moussavi, left his home and attended the demonstration. He called on the protestors to continue their protests. He vowed to continue the fight whatever the cost. The cleric, at this point has lost. There are only three possible outcomes: either they give in, announce a recount and admit that Moussavi is the winner; call a new election with the proper monitoring; or brutally surpress the opponents. All of those outcomes will significantly weaken them. It is also not clear they can succeed in putting down the demonstrations. Ahmadinejad has the Revolutionary Guard at his disposal. The loyalty of the regular army however, is very much in doubt.

It’s a day after Netanyahu’s big speech, and the reactions and analyis continue. The speech clearly succeeded with its intended audience. President Obama’s Press Secretary answered the following question aboard Air Force One:

Q: In the Netanyahu speech yesterday, the administration sort of welcomed the things that he had to say about a separate Palestinian state, but the Palestinians have pretty firmly rejected it. Did the President really get what he needed from Netanyahu in order to push the peace process forward?

MR. GIBBS: Well, look, I think the government -- the Netanyahu government took a big step forward yesterday in acknowledging for the first time the need for a two-state solution. I think the President believes that there is a long way to go and many twists and turns in the road to get there, but is pleased thus far with the progress that's being made. And I think yesterday's speech certainly is a big part of that.

European reaction was similar, if a little more reserved. The Palestinians continued their denouncement of Netanyahu speech, saying all his conditions on Palestinian statehood made his offer moot. They attempted to spin it as if his conditions were preconditions to negotiations, but they were not, they instead have been putting preconditions on the negotiations... they want to pick up were the last negotiations ended. Unfortunately for them, the agreed upon rules of the last negotiations were that none of the agreements reached were binding, unless a full agreement was reached.

David Makovsky had a very interesting piece in the Wall Street Journal today, called "Mideast Peace Can Start with a Land Swap". In the article he suggest a way to move forward is to agree on the final borders and a land swap, thus making the building in many of the settlments a non-issue. 0-+

Netanyahu Says the Words: Endorses Two State

Netanyahu said the words... He finally stated he would accept a two state solution. He placed many conditions on the final statehood, but he stated what he had never stated before– that he is willing to work towards the establishment of a Palestinian state. This is the first time Netanyahu has uttered those words.

His conditions were many, but they are not all that relevant. The statement was key. The American administration might not be happy with the fact Netanyahu stated that natural growth of the settlments will continue, but getting Netanyahu to utter the words "Palestinain state" is clearly an accomplishment for President Obama and he responded appropriately. President Obama's response was: "The President welcomes the important step forward in Prime Minister Netanyahu's speech. The President is committed to two states, a Jewish state of Israel and an independent Palestine, in the historic homeland of both peoples. He believes this solution can and must ensure both Israel's security and the fulfillment of the Palestinians' legitimate aspirations for a viable state, and he welcomes Prime Minister Netanyahu's endorsement of that goal. The President will continue working with all parties - Israel, the Palestinian Authority, Arab states, and our Quartet partners - to see that they fulfill their obligations and responsibilities necessary to achieve a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and a comprehensive regional peace." Those who attacked Netanyahu's speech included: the Palestinians, who said they refused to enter into negotitiatons "without preconditions". They want to pick up where their negotiations with the Olmert government left off. They also objected to his other conditions; no negotiations over Jerusalem or refugees. The Israeli right also objected. For them, having PM Netanyahu utter the words "Palestinian state" was sacrilegious. The only groups that liked the speech in Israel were members of the labor party and Kadima.

The Iranian elections have come and gone. By all accounts, the election was stolen. While all the details are not known, it seems that when it became clear that Mousavi, Ahmadinejad's opponent, had won, the cleric who is the supreme leader of Iran ordered the Interior Ministry to doctor the results. The clerics may have miscalculated. Thy achieved short term gain- keeping their man in a job that is partially ceremonial. However, they have eliminated their key safety valve in the society, giving the people the feeling they have some power over their future. In addition, even though Mousavi was as commited to Iran's nuclear future as Ahmadinejad, if he had won, international pressure on Iran would have lessoned– the world would want to give Mousavi- the one who took down Achmdinejad, some time. In the meantime, the centrifuges in Iran’s nuclear program would continue to spin. By having Ahmadinejad steal the election, the cleric has probably done more to convince a reluctant world to increase the pressure on Iran.