Israel

Shalit Deal- An Alternative- The Settlement Divide

Israeli news has been dominated by reports of meetings relating to a deal on Shalit. According to most reliable reports, the security cabinet is split with Netanyahu holding the deciding vote. It would seem Hamas has not changed its position in any significant way, and now its up to the Israeli government to decide to accept it or not. It's an impossible choice- it's one I am glad I do not have to make, since neither answer is acceptable... and although I have a daughter who served in the IDF and will most likely have another one serving two years from now, I feel unequipped to support either side of the two currently proposed options. I would like to suggest a third approach: Israel should consider unilaterally releasing all prisoners, except those who have special technical capabilities (e. g. the bomb makers). These people are going to have to be released as part of a permanent peace agreement anyway, so why not see if they can be released without returning to terror. Why not take the high ground, upset the apple cart and take the initiative. It's risky, and it does not guarantee you could subsequently force Hamas to release Shalit. However, it's very clear that releasing the prisoners as a result of an agreement with Hamas will greatly stengthen Hamas and cause untold damage.

Last night I watched a talk show on Israeli TV whose panel was composed of an equal number of individuals who opposed or supported the cutting of ties between the IDF and the Hesder Yeshiva run by Rabbi Melamed. The discussion went beyond that narrow question. The discourse was as heated as any I have ever heard. One of the interesting formulations stated by one of the critics of the Hesder Yeshivas was his opinion the divide that exists in Israeli society is between those who see the STATE of Israel as most important, while others see who LAND of Israel as paramount. Stated otherwise, the original Zionists saw settlement as a means to an end for the creation of the State; while some of todays settlers see that state as a means of settlement. Though these goals are of course not mutually exclusive, and there clearly is a spectrum of views, they provide a good theoretical framework to look at these issues.

rrest Warrant for Livni in UK, Year Without Casualties, Dentistry, and Iran

The news in Israel today was dominated by the report that a British court has issued an arrest warrant, for former Israeli Foreign Minister, Livni, for her involvment in Israels War with Hamas in Gaza last winter. The arrest warrant is part of the ongoing campaign in Europe to charge Israelis with war crimes. British law allows any British judge to issue an warrant. Israel has demanded the British change their laws, and today announced that no high ranking Israelis would visit England until that happens.

Yesterday, Hamas celebrated its anniversary in Gaza with a mass demonstration. Hamass Gaza Prime Minister, Ismail Haniyeh, who was long considered a moderate in Hamas, spoke, stating how Hamas would never rest until all of Palestine was liberated.

Meanwhile the IDFs Chief of intellgence summarized the year and the state of threats facing Israel. On the positive side, it has been one of the quietest years in Israels history. No Israelis (army or civilians) were killed this year by actions of an enemy. It's been decades, if not the first time ever that has happened. On the other, hand, Yadlin warned that during this quiet, Hamas, Hezbollah and the Syrians have been arming themselves, especially with missiles. He also stated the Iranians can produce a nuclear weapons within months of their decision to do so. This ties together with the disclosure yesterday of Iranian documents showing that as far back as 2007 it was proceeding with development of Nuclear warheads. The vaunted Obama diplomatic efforts to stop the Iranians seems to have run into a bump, when the Chinese cancelled a meeting scheduled for Friday to discuss additional sanctions.

The Knesset and the Ministry of Health reacted today to an announcement by Deputy Health Minister (effectively the minister), Litzman, that he was transferring funds so that all Israeli children would have free dental care. A decision that in the long run makes sense. While Israel has one of the top medical systems, in terms of outcomes, its dental care is very problematic. According to one report, the average IDF inductee (on arrival) has as many as 12 cavaties, more than three time the rate of children of the same age in other countries. Because of the cost, and limited access, many Israeli kids go without dental care.

The Australian army received delivery today of their new Israeli RPVs for use in the war in Afghanistan. That brings the number of armies using Israeli RPV in Afghanistan to 5. Besides Australia, Germany France, Spain and Canada use Israel made Remote Piloted Vehicles in the skies over Afghanistan.

Barak Cancels Relationship With Hesder Yeshiva, Obama's Survey of Israeli Public Opinion

Tonight, Defense Minister Barak cancelled the relationship between the IDF and the Yeshiva "Har Baruch", a yeshiva that, until now, has been a Hesder Yeshiva. This will be the first time since Hesder Yeshivas were established (in 1966) the IDF has ended a relationship with a Yeshiva. [A "Hesder Yeshiva" is one in which the students spend part of their army service in regular service and part of it studying in the Yeshiva. Barak took his action after the head of the Yeshiva refused to meet with Barak and state he would not call for Sarbanoot a refusal to follow orders. The issue comes down to the actions of a number of Heads of Yeshivas who have publicly stated their students would not follow orders to remove settlers. There was criticism by supporters of Rabbi Eliezer, the head of Yeshiva Har Baruch, stating he is not the only one making the statements; almost all the Hesder Rabbis are saying the same thing. Of course that begs the question of whether the Hesder Yeshivas should continue at all.

This happened the same day the Netanyhu government approved the new map of towns that would get additional funds. 92% of the funds would go to town and villages in the Galil and Negev, many of them are arab towns and villages and was not controversial. The controversy occurred over the 8% of funds (110 million shekels) going to 90 settlements in the West Bank, (many of them, beyond the settlement blocks.) Barak, who according to a spokesman for Netanyahu had supported the plan, tried to block the approval in the cabinet. He argued that it was absurd to give support to some of those towns in the west bank that were supporting vandalism and hooliganism against Arabs in the West Bank.

Barak was specifically referring to an event that took place on Friday, one that thankfully received very little world wide publicity. He was referring to the burning and vandalizing of a mosque in the Arab town of Yasuf. The attack was done, allegedly, by settlers angry at the settlement freeze. Some moderate West Bank settlers, led by the renowned Rabbi of Tekoah, Rabbi Fruman, reached out and led a march to the town to bring it new Korans.

The Obama administration recently engaged in poll taking in Israel. The result of the poll showed that 42% of Israelis had a positive view of President Obama. 51% of Israelis supported Prime Minister Netanyahu. The most interesting results of the poll showed that if President Obama came forth with a peace plan that had the support of Prime Minister Netanyahu, even if there were painful compromises: 70% of Israelis would support it. On the other hand, if Obama were to put forth a plan which Netnayahu opposes, only 42% would support it while 48% would oppose that plan.

Netanyahu Zig Zags

Today the Israeli government announced its new map of cities and towns that will receive additional government support.  Some of those are not only in the West Bank, but are settlements are considered illegal.  Yesterday the Knesset, with the support and encouragement of Prime Minister Netanyahu, voted to require a national referendum before Israel can withdraw from territory such as the Golan Heights.

Some commentators have defined Netanyahu’s policies as zig zaging.  One day he announces a settlement freeze, and then next day he takes actions that are sure to make the world angry. 

It seems very clear that Netanyahu and probably Barak have come to the conclusion (I believe correct) that the Palestinians are not willing to come to a peace agreement.  It is clear if they did not accept Olmert’s offer similarly to the way they did not accept Barak’s Camp David offer, they are not willing to come to an agreement.  However, what Netanyahu is only partially grasping is that Israel must always be on the diplomatic offensive.  The US State Department announced today the obvious that it has been unable to get negotiations going between Israel and the Palestinians.  If Netanyahu had agreed to the settlement freeze six months ago, there would be no question of who is responsible.  Instead, for domestic political considerations it took him six months to come to the decision and then he allowed the actions of the last two day to undermine the positive effect of that decision.  The Palestinians are only going to renew their world wide attempts at undermining Israel diplomatically.  That requires a nimble diplomacy, not one that is determined by domestic political concerns. 

Today while most Americans were uninterested and somewhat embarrassed by President Obama’s receiving his Nobel Peace Prize (although his speech was not bad), Israelis took pride in the first Israeli women, Aida Yona, to win the prize for her work in the field of chemistry.  Some commentators worry about the future of Israeli science citing the fact that over the last 30 years only 1 profership was added at the Technion while at both Hebrew University and Tel Aviv University the academic staff has been cut.   This is taking place while the size of the country has doubled. 

Settler Continue to Protest

The news in Israel was dominated by the pictures of religious high school girls trying to block the serving of injuntions on buildings in the west bank. Those demonstrations tonight extended to trying to disrupt traffic on the Tel Aviv-Jerusalem highway. These actions are reminiscent of the events leading up to the pull-out from Gaza. Many Israelis had sympathy for the settlers, but the settlers in Gaza were not able to gain any serious support from the Israeli public at large. When leaders who have been identified by their support of the settler movement in the past, like Sharon or Netanyahu, it becomes almost impossible for the settler demonstrators to gain any real support-- especially when the underlying statement that Netanyhu’s action seem to saying, that stopping building in the settlements is a very small price to pay to gain closer support from the US and Western Europe on the question of Iran- which is an existential threat.

Interestingly, top Israeli officials have been making noises in the last few days that they are very satisfied with close working relationship with the US administration on Iran, and that the Obama administration is doing exactly what it promised, in terms of gaining support for a much tougher sanctions on the regime, which they expect the United States to push to implement after January 1 of the year. In interviews on the Sunday talk shows, both Admiral Mullen, Chairman of the Joint Chief of Staffs and the General Petraus, the Commander of the Central Command addressed the issue and made it clear that time was running out. In case anyone missed what they said, the Armed Service Press Service made sure to send out a release today on Iran quoting both of the them. Finally, in Iran itself, large scale student demonstrations took place today. Its clear that the Iranian government has not been able to completely silence their critics. How to put pressure, crippling pressure on the regime, while at the same time strengthening the opposition will be the only way to stop the regime. A very difficult tight rope.

Settlers Fight Building Freeze

As American attention has been turned toward Afghanistan, Israeli news has been dominated by attempts of the settlers to stop any attempt of enforcing the building plan passed by the Israeli government.  There were a number of violent incidents when settlers blocked the way of government officials trying to serve papers that freeze the settlement building. 

The settlers seemed genuinely stunned that Netanyahu has turned on them.  One of the leaders of the settler movement stated, "I do not understand, he ran on a platform of supporting settlement and now he wants to stop it?" That same settler leader made the often presented argument that if Jews do not have the right to build in Judea and Samaria they do not have the right to build in Tel Aviv.  Of course what they are saying is that the Jewish right to build in the land of Israel derives from God giving the land to the Jews.  This idea ignores Zionist history during which the Zionist movement agreed to the partition of the land in return for statehood that was approved by the United Nations in 1947.

Aluf Benn wrote an interesting article in today’s Ha'aretz called What Netanyahu really thinks about settlements.  

Nasrallah gave a major speech yesterday on the eve of Hezbollah’s joining the Lebanese government.  His speech made the normal attacks on Israel.  He added a number of new enemies of the Muslim world.  First and foremost on his list is the US who he claimed has designs on conquering the Muslim world.  He seems to really believe that.  Nasrallah e also added certain Arab countries, such as Egypt, are also enemies of Islam.

The voters of Switzerland have made a surprising decision over the weekend to outlaw the building of any more minarets in Switzerland.  In some ways it should not be surprising.  Switzerland has always been a very insular country, and as Jews have learned, never very welcoming to the other.  Therefore, it is not surprising that the voters who feared the growth of Islam in Switzerland took the action that other European countries fear to take.  It is a very complicated problem, but as Christopher Caldwell wrote in a book that I strongly recommend, Reflections on the Revolution in Europe- Immigration, Islam and the West, it is a problem that is not going away.   Hopefully governments and people of Europe will find better ways to deal with the problem than outlawing the building of Mosque.

Finally on a positive note, Israeli TV ran a story tonight on a high school in Netanya that was having trouble attracting students to take physics.  Last year there were only 2 and they were planning to close the department.  This year they came up with the idea of teaching physics through teaching how to fly aircraft.  The plan worked and 32 students signed up and the course is a big success.  This once again proves that thinking out of the box is the best way to innovate in education.

Iran Reacts Irrationally

Iran and the world seem to be heading on a collision course. Following their refusal to accept the proposal put forward by the group of five nations, the full plenum of the International Atomic Energy Committee voted overwhelming for a resolution demanding an immediate halt in Iranian activities. The vote was fully supported and partially drafted by the Chinese. Maybe President Obamas efforts in China and Russia have been more productive than he has received credit for. In the meantime the Iranians have responded by announcing that they will build 10 additional plants. Observers had expected that the Iranian government would prevaricate, delay and avoid confrontation, but so far they have been wrong. It is similar , in retrospect, to tryiing to understand why Saddam Hussien  had not taken the actions to show that he did not have weapons of mass destruction,  that would have avoided war. Without fully have an answer to this question, I would like to posit that we do not understand the workings of the Iranian government, especially a government that is under domestic political pressure. Acting in any way that might show weakness seems impossible for them and thus they are acting in ways that may not seem  rational.  Of course they could be an irrational actor on the world scene-  This is what Newsweek was certainly intimating recently.

Take a look at last weeks Newsweek- the column by Jon Meacham on Bearing Witness to Totalitarianismm 

Then read the article about the actual interrogation of the Newsweek reporter- 118 Days, 12 Hours a 54 Minutes

Finally read todays column by Thomas Friedman American vs  The Narrative- It's frightening.

Netanyahu Announces Settlement Freeze, Shalit Deal On Hold

Prime Minister Netanyahu made a dramatic announcement today and stated that the Israeli government officially agreed to freeze all residential construction in the West Bank for ten months. This is the first time an Israeli government has agreed to this. By watching Netanyahu in his announcement, one could see from his body language that this was something that he was reluctantly agreeing to, without enthusiasm. The only member of the cabinet to vote against the decision was Uzi Landau, with the Shas ministers leaving the room at the time of the vote. Benny Begin and Bogi Yaalon both voted in favor. According to reports, their agreement resulted from the close consultation that Netanyahu had with the two. They apparently decided that for the sake of the Israel’s relationship with the American government this was a needed step.

The American government has welcomed the plan by stating, "Today’s announcement by the Government of Israel helps move forward toward resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. We believe that through good-faith negotiations the parties can mutually agree on an outcome which ends the conflict and reconciles the Palestinian goal of an independent and viable state based on the 1967 lines, with agreed swaps, and the Israeli goal of a Jewish state with secure and recognized borders that reflect subsequent developments and meet Israeli security requirements. Let me say to all the people of the region and world: our commitment to achieving a solution with two states living side by side in peace and security is unwavering".

Unfortunately, the Palestinians have responded with their near pavlovian response. They said that it is not enough, since Netanyahu would not announce a freeze in Jerusalem, something that has effectively been happening for the last 6 months. The end result of these actions seems to be a political win for Netanyahu, who both proved that he is strong and was able to get a difficult decision through his government, one that no left leaning Israeli government would ever dare do. It also moves his position much closer to that of the Obama administration. Thus, Israel will probably no longer be considered the road block to moving any American plan forward; rather it will clearly be the Palestinians.

The rumors of an almost immediate agreement on Gilad Shalit seem to have been misplaced. Hamas has officially declared that talks will be put off until next week. It seems that the leadership of Hamas in Damascus refuses to agree to any change in the list that was first presented. That leadership receives its instruction from some combination of Iran and Syria; neither have ever really had the interest of the Palestinians in Gaza at heart, rather their own strategic interests. It is unclear, however, if they want to destroy the negotiations or just slow them down and try to get better terms.

A survey of the Israeli public shows that 83% of Israeli supports the deal as it has been more or less outlined. When ask if they would support a deal that had the release of “heavy” terrorists, 56% said yes and 33% said no.

There were two interesting articles in yesterday's Wall Street Journal. One is a lengthy review of Start-Up Nation and the other on Carterization of the Obama administration.

Shalit Deal May Be Near- Haredim Cause New Problems

The news from Israel is dominated by the report that a deal for the release of Gilad Shalit is immanent. It is not clear that things are that close but some believe a deal could be announced in the next few days. It would seem that Hamas has finally been willing to agree to change the names on the list of prisoners it is willing to accept. However, the leadership of Hamas in Syria has not given their approval yet and could still scuttle the deal.

Prime Minister Netanyahu announced that before the deal would go forward he would bring it up for a complete national debate. Already the rightists in his coalition are denouncing the deal. It is expected that if Netanyahu approves the deal the government will go along. I am glad I do not have to vote for or against the deal since it presents extreme moral dilemmas

Over the weekend a number of issues relating to Haredim have been big news in Israel. The first is the continued violent demonstrations against Intel this Saturday in Jerusalem despite Intel’s agreement only to employ non Jews on Saturday. The second has been the intervention of the Deputy Minister of Health (he is the acting Minister of Health, but his Haredi party refuses to have Ministers so instead they get a deputy who is in fact the minister). Lets leave aside the usually absurdity of Israeli politics of Haredi, who has no knowledge or real interest in medicine being the Minister of Health, but he went to one of the main Israeli hospitals and demanded that a Haredi girl who was brain dead remain in intensive care and be cared for as if nothing was wrong with her brain. Israeli law takes in account the fact that Haredim do not accept brain death as death and only the heart stopping, so it instructs the hospitals to continue providing life support if the family wants until the heart stops. Judaism clearly does not require the hospital to keep a patient in the ICU, where the beds are at a premium. Needless to say Israeli doctors are up in arms at this interference.

Supreme Court Overturns Prison Privatization

In a rare move the Israeli Supreme Court overturned a Knesset law in an 8-1 ruling saying that it violates a Basic Law. The law in question allows for the establishment of privately run prisons. The Supreme Court stated that privately owned prisons, which exist for a profit margin, violate the basic rights of prisoners. It is interesting to note that privatizing prisons has been a big but controversial business in the US. Lev Leviev's Africa Israel Corporation has invested about 250 million shekels in building the first private prison. I expect they will sell the prison to the government.

The fallout from the ridiculous announcement by Minister of Internal Affairs Eli Yishai regarding planning approval in Gilo continued yesterday, with President Obama making a public statement disapproving the actions. As a result there has been wall to wall condemnation around the world. This was further complicated by the timing of the destruction of Arab homes in East Jerusalem yesterday that were built without permission. All this have united Palestinians around the question of the settlements. There is fear that the Palestinians might resort to violent protests against the settlements, believing that the world would support their actions.