Israel

Netanyahu Blames Messengers, Impact of Tal Law Repeal, Concentration of Power in Israeli Economy

Today was a very busy news day in Israel. Which of the stories is most important I am not sure... So in no particular order...
The fallout from the forced resignation of Netanyahu's closest confidant, Natan Eshel, has probably become as bad as the initial scandal. It began the night of Eshel's resignation, when Netanyahu thanked Eshel for his service and spoke about his accomplishments, without saying anything about the individual who was harassed. To some extent I was not surprised. As I was friends with one of Netanyahu’s secretaries when he was Ambassador to the U. N. and…..
The situation became much worse yesterday, and again today, when Netanyahu publically criticized the three members of his staff who brought the scandal to the legal advisor to the government. Netanyahu stated they should have come to him first. Netanyahu reprimanded the actions of these staffers, even though they were dealing with his closest advisor, and despite the fact that the governement's legal advisor has publicly stated it was a good thing the staffers had not gone straight to Netanyahu. One of Netanyahu's advisors, the head of information, was forced to resign. Netanyahu's military aid, who is coming to the end of his term, is in the doghouse, and the government's secretary who clearly does not have a future with Netanyahu. So instead of blaming Eshel, the harasser, it is those who put an end to the harassment who are being blamed. What a lesson.
The fallout from yesterday's Supreme Court decision on the Tal Law continues. The prevailing views seem to take two extremes. On one hand, there is the view that all this will blow over and a new version of the Tal Law will pass. On the other hand, there is the view of many non-haredim that we are now at a historic moment to change what has become an ever-larger failure of Israeli society. I come down on the side of the later, mostly because of the calendar. The Tal law expires in August. The Haredim will never agree to the sort of changes that the rest of the country is demanding. However, the power the Haredi bloc is greatest after an election, when the time comes to put together a coalition. Before the election all of the parties will be unwilling to give in the Haredim. So, I am going to go out on a limb today. I will optimistically predict that a law is passed in August, (similar to a law presented by Kadima) that will force everyone to do either army service, Sherut Leumi, or another type of national service for three years. A small number of brilliant Talmud students will be exempted.
The Israeli government committee, concentrated on the economy presented its report today. Both the government and the Bank of Israel endorsed the committee's report. The report showed that the Israeli economy is the second most concentrated in the world; the only economy with greater concentration is Indonesia. "Concentration" mean that a small number of people control much of the economy. The two main recommendations of the committee were that no person in the economy should control both a financial entity and an operating company. That means that one individual cannot control a bank or an insurance company and a cell phone company. The second major recommendation is that pyramid ownership has to end. Pyramid ownership is when someone who owns a controlling interest of one company, uses that company to purchase 51% of another company, thus gaining control of a second company. They then use that second company to purchases 51% of a third company, which is how the pyramid is built. The result of the pyramid business purchasing paradigm, is that someone with very little equity can control many companies.
If I have not confused you yet, let me explain the major difference between the American economy and the Israeli economy. There are very rich people in the US. Some of that wealth has been created by people who started companies such as Microsoft or Facebook and managed to hold on to their stock for a long time, and become wealthy, while maintaining control. Others have made their money by selling their shares, either on the stock exchange or by being bought out. But the money came from building a company. The other major types of American wealth come either from building real estate empires or frompeople made large sums on Wall Street. In Israel, the 20 wealthiest families control over 50% of the large companies. These are not companies they founded, but rather companies they have acquired by means of the above pyramid schemes. IF the government successfully implements the proposals of the economic committee (something that is not guaranteed), it could have a huge impact on the Israeli economy.
Finally, the scenes from Syria have become ever harder to take today. At least a hundred people killed by artillery bombardment in Homs, including two western journalists. There were also images of a group of youngsters who were massacred outside a town in southern Syria that came out today. The images look like the scenes from Bosnia in the midst of their war.

Israel Supreme Court Rules Tal Law Cannot be Extended

The politics of religion in Israel are about the get very interesting. For the last few months the religious 'status quo' has been shaky, to say the least. The public outcry over haredi attempts to force woman to the back of the buses, together with the events in Bet Shemesh, awakened Israel’s sleeping majority. Today, there was a double response. This morning Israeli news was dominated by the decision of the Tel Aviv city council to begin pubic transportation on Shabbat. The issue has been a long simmering one. The lack of public transportation on Shabbat primarily effects the poor who do not have cars. Of course, this decision will have no immediate effect, since it needs to be approved by the Ministry of Transportation. Today's government is dependent on the religious parties, which will never allow this to happen. However, the chances of a government being formed with the religious parties in the near future is now greatly in doubt, as a result of the bombshell Supreme Court decision released tonight. The court announced that the "Tal Law" allowing Haredi men not to be drafted is invalid and cannot be extended. The future of the Tal Law was already called into question, with many politicians promising not to extend it. However, the decision of the court, who accepted the argument that any law that exempts part of the population, and thus puts undue burden on the rest, violates the basic laws of the country was far reaching. It is going to be very difficult to get around this decision. Yet I do not see the Haredim accepting any plan that is going to force their children to do army service or national. On the other hand, the rest of the Israeli population is going to have a hard time accepting any thing less. It is going to be interesting.
The rapidly changing events caused by the Arab Spring are bringing about some very strange alliances. We saw Hamid Meshal, the leader of Hamas, who was living in Syria until recently to come to an agreement with Fatah; an agreement that made Abbas the President of both groups. The Gaza leadership, led by Ismail Haniyeh rebelled against that agreement. Haniyeh then made a visit to Iran. That visit to Iran backfired, with the leadership of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt criticizing Haniyeh and urging him to reach an agreement with Abbas. Further than that, one of the Brotherhood leaders was on TV today saying that it is Iran who presents the real threat to Egypt and the Middle East. He specifically said that for the moment, it is not Israel and the Jews that are the threat, but the Iranians.
For an interesting read, see my review of "UnOrthodox".

Zakaria Gets it Wrong on the Iranian Threat, Israel and US on Iran, PM Confidant Resigns Amid Scandal

I have been having greater and greater difficulty with various commentators who are urging Israel not to attack Iran. Please understand, I am certainly one to urge caution and do not think it is time to attack. However, as I was about to publish tonight's update, I started listening to Fareed Zakaria's GPS (Global Public Square) broadcast earlier today. Zakaria makes the claim I have heard a few times, that Israel is wrong when it says "the United States does not understand the threat that Iran poses". Zakaria's answer is that "we" (as in Americans) do understand, since "we" once lived through the same threat.Zakaria is referring to the time the Soviet Union acquired nuclear weapons for the first time. At that time, Zakaria claims, there were many calling for a First Strike by the US, before it was too late. I have two very serious problems with this line of thought. First, historically, there was no serious discussion in the US government, in the late 40's, about striking the Soviet Union preemptively. Yes, there was fear of the spread of Communism. Yes, there was also fear what the Soviets would do with the bomb. However, other than some fringe figures, there was never serious discussion about attacking the Soviet Union. And that was for a good reason, the second major problem with the analogy. The Soviet Union never repeatedly threatened to wipe the United States off the map. After the tragedies of the 20th century, Jews are incapable of ignoring a threat like. After the 20th century we are compelled to take any threat like that seriously and literally. Furthermore, for all its cruelty and disregard for human life, the Soviet Union was not a theorcracy whose leaders believed they were carrying out the will of God. Leaders who believes they are "doing God's work on earth", who simultaneously call for the destruction of Israel; which they defiantly state is coming soon, cannot be equated with the Soviet Union of the late 1940's. Finally Iran has a long history of having its surrogates actually attack and kill Israelis. Tonight US National Security Advisor, Tom Donilon, is meeting with Prime Minister Netanyahu, to discuss Iran and Syria. Israel and the media are ripe with speculation on what this means. Frankly that is all there is- speculation. The Israeli media reported extensively this morning on CNN's interview with Gen. Martin Dempsey. In the interview Dempsey stated that Israel has the capability of setting back the Iranian nuclear program by a number of years, but does not possess the ability to stop the program completely. General Dempsey specifically stated that there are Iranian targets that are out of Israel's range. He added that this fact is one of the things that worries Israel. Dempsey continued that he understands Israel see's the Iranian threat as existential, something the United States still does not. He concluded by saying that the United States may not have fully convinced Israel of it’s position. Confusing matters further, in the last couple of days we have heard Netanyahu stating that sanctions are not working, while Ehud Barak said sanctions are having a strong impact on Iran. A third Israeli Minister pronounced that sanctions have not yet had an effect on the Iranian nuclear program. If you want clarity on this matter, you must look somewhere else.The clearest explanations I heard on this matter was from one Israeli commentator today. He just laid out the options, while at the same time, stating that he does not know which is true. Option A: Israel and the United States are fully on the same page and this is all part of a plan to keep pressure on Iran and force the rest of the world to go along with the sanctions. Option B: the US and Israel are more or less on the same page, but disagree when the Red line will be crossed. Israel thinks that point is earlier than the Americans. The major issue is whether the US is willing to give Israel guarantees that if Israeli listens and the US is wrong, that the US will attack. Finally, there is Option C: The US and Israel are on totally different pages and the US is worried that Israel is about to attack Iran.It seems very unlikely that Israel will attack Iran right now, with the Assad regime teetering on the edge of demise, as the sanctions on Iran are finally getting ever tougher. This week the international banking systems, "SWIFT exchange", has agreed to cut off Iran, something that will make doing business with Iran nearly impossible. The major domestic news story today was the plea agreement reached for Natan Eshel to resign from government service and never work for the government again. Eshel was the head of Prime Minister Netanyahu's bureau. Eshel was the person, considered by many, to be the person closest to the Netanyahu family. Eshel was forced to admit to inappropriate activity-taking photographs and violating the privacy of an employee of the Prime Minister's officers who worked under Eshel.
The hunger strike undertaken by the Palestinian prisoner Chader Adnan has received a great deal of publicity in the last few days. Adnan began his hunger strike 70 days ago, in protest against the administrative detention he has been under. He is demanding that he either be tried or released. I generally sympathize with his issue, (not with Adnan). Being a scholar of the US Constitution I am a strong believer in Habeas Corpus. The idea that someone can be held without any trial is an anathema to me. However, I have the same feeling about Guantanamo Bay, where the US does the same thing. This isproblematic, in both cases.Finally, a new stage was reached in the Syrian revolt, wide scale demonstrations reached Damascus for the first time today. If demonstrations become widespread in Damascus, it will indicate that the end is near.

Iran Show of Nuclear Program, Bungles Terror Attacks, J Street Crosses A Line

Israeli news was dominated today with what looks like word of an Iranian terror action in the Far East. There was also news from Iran of their much anticipated announcement heralding new nuclear capabilities. From Ahmedinejad's buildup, one could have been led to believe he was going to announce they had built a bomb. Instead, Ahmedinejad announced that Iran had built nuclear rods for the scientific reactor in Teheran, that is currently in use, and under international supervision. If the rods were indeed Iranian built, it does show off the technical abilities of the Iranain Scientists. However it does not bring them much closer to the bomb. Other actions do. One independent observer wondered idly, why the Iranians keep making announcements intead of quietly doing things? The answer is, that it's very important to the Iranian regime to show off that the world will not stop them. That is why Ahmedinejad gave a 30 minute speech attacking the United States and other western countries for trying to stop the Iranian nuclear program; a program he stated would never be stopped. Meanwhile, the investigations continue into the terror attacks in Bankok and New Dehli. Fatefully, the attack in Bankok turned into a fiasco for the terrorists. One of the terrorists threw a grenade that bounced off of a tree and blew his feet off. After the blast, the two other members of his immediate cell were both caught. Ultimately, the entire cell was caught. It was determined the same explosives were used both in the New Delhi and Bankgok attacks. In the case of New Delhi the terrorists made calls to both Lebanon and Iran in the hours immediately prior to the attack. The terrorists were carrying Iranian passports. The whole story seems strange. If the story of the attacks is  what it appears to be, the implementation of these attacks indicate a level of amateurish behavior that we can be happy to see from the Iranians.
I was very disturbed by an e-mail I received from J Street this afternoon. While I have taken issue with many of J-Streets position.  I would like to accept them at their word that they act in what they see as the best interest of Israel, even if I may not always agree.  
 Today’s e-mail called on those who receive it to "Ask your Member of Congress to join the Ellison-Jones letter calling for robust, sustained diplomacy to prevent a costly new war."   This E-mail campaign is undoubtedly against the interests of the State of Israel and all of its citizens. Its only if the government in Iran truly fears a possible American strike that they might stop their nuclear program.As a resident of Tel Aviv, I ardently hope that Israel does not attack Iran's nuclear facilities. I fear the consequences of such an attack. I also know that such an attack would be stretching our abilities to their limit. Here, the Israeli government faces a severe dilemma. No one in Israel wants to spend the rest of their life in fear that religious fanatics in Teheran might one day end our lives in suicidal fit to eliminate the Jewish state. In my opinion, the best chance to solve the Iranian dilemma, short of war, is if the Iranians fear a US strike is immenent and they blink. The second best way to end the dilemma, from my perspective, is if the US strikes Iran. American military capabilities far exceed those of Israel. Israel will listens to pleas to give sanctions a chance, and take a chance missing its window to mount an attack, if it believes  that the US would act in its place,. J-Street is undermining the chances of that happening, and thus acting in a way that is inimical to interests of  Israel and its people.

Terror Attacks on Israeli Targets Abroad, Arab League vs Assad

Israeli diplomats were targets of terror attacks today in New Delhi and Tbilsi, the capital of Georgia. In New Delhi a motorcyclist came up to the car of the wife of an Israeli Defense Ministry Representative and placed a bomb on the car. That bomb exploded and injured the woman. This method of targeted assassination was very similar to the methods used in Teheran to kill Iranian scientists. In Tbilsi, a non-Israeli employee of the Israeli embassy discovered a bomb attached to the undercarriage of his car, as he checked the vehicle prior to getting in. It is not yet definitively known who carried out these attacks. However, obvious candidates to have perpetrated the attacks are some combination of Iran and Hezbollah.
Hezbollah has promised to avenge the assassination of Imad Mughniyeh, their former Chief of Operations, who was killed four years ago yesterday. To date they have not succeeded in implementing any major operation. The Iranians have been promising a response to the assassination of their scientists. It's really irrelevant who exactly was responsible for today’s attacks, since Iran and Hezbollah work together very closely. Hezbollah is in particularly difficult straits at this time, with its major sponsor, Assad, on the ropes. Hezbollah clearly fears the likelihood of losing its position in Lebanon, with the loss of it patron.
In Lebanon there is a hope that with the fall of Assad, Lebanon will finally be free. The Lebanese hope for freedom is tempered with the fear that the country will descend into a new round of Civil War.


Meanwhile, the Arab League has now taken the unprecedented step of calling for military intervention against the Assad government. Any façade of the Arab League staying neutral with regard to Syria is now gone. The Arab League is now fully united against Assad. The Sunni states are making their stand against any sign of Shiite influence. Of course there is only one Shiite state in the Middle East, and that is Iran

National Strike Ends, Syrian Slaughter, Gaza Dark

Israel's recent five-day general strike ended this morning. It was a strange strike. Although it was supposedly general, the strike had limited effect. Schools were open. The buses ran. However, the trains did not run. Ben Gurion Airport was closed, though only for six hours. Therefore, most airlines were able to plan around the strike. The only thing that remained closed were all of the government's ministries. As a result, the garbage piled up. The strike was held over a long running dispute about the hiring practices for many government jobs, especially lower level ones, (such as cleaning and protection) to outside contractors. These outside contractors charge less, as they pay their workers less and do not give them any benefits. The National Labor Union, the Histradrut, demanded that the workers be hired directly by the government. In the end, the government refused to do that, but agreed to equalize the pay of the outside workers with the salaries that government workers receive. The government further agreed to raise the minimum wage paid to such workers from 4,000 shekel to 4,500 shekel per month. ($1066 – $1200 a month). There were some other concessions made by the government, given in the area of professional workers that were contract workers as well. In the end, the government concessions add up to some well deserved, albeit small gains for the poorest of workers. However, these gains are certainly not something that justified a national strike.


The situation in Syria continues to be tragic. President Assad has clearly turned his tanks and artillery on his own people. The lesson for Israelis is always the same, if he is willing to do that to his own people, what would he be willing to do to us if he had the ability? Most Israeli observers believe it would be good for Israel if Assad were to fall, and thus break the Syrian Alliance with Iran. On the other hand, there is fear of chaos in Syria, and of chemical weapons falling into the hands of Hezbollah or other terrorists. The changes in the Arab world have the potential for building a better future, but the chaos of today creates a level of uncertainty for which it is almost impossible to plan.
Meanwhile, the Gaza Strip is dark tonight. This is not the result of any action that Israel has taken. Rather, darkness is the product of the decision of those in the Strip who chose to import their oil and gas from the more reliable Egypt. The chaos in Egypt, however, has caused a complete breakdown in supplies. The cars are quiet and the one power plant that has been working at minimal capacity will go completely quiet tomorrow morning, as the last of its fuel will be exhausted.

The Killing Continues in Syria, Hysteria over a Potential Israeli Strike on Iran

The killings continued in Syria today, with vivid pictures of the Syrian army bombing Sunni areas of Homs. One theory on the escalation of violence is that Assad is going all out before the arrival of the Russian Foreign Minister. Whatever Assad's current reasons, his father may have successfully brought the Muslim Brotherhood to heal thirty years ago by massacring 25,000 people in Hama. However, that was before the days of smart phones and satellite communication. Today the world as well as the Syrian people see the pictures of the Syrian army's brutality and there is no turning back. Those picutres and the underlying brutality are creating the pictures of regular Syrian troops defecting with their tanks. The US and Great Britain have recalled their ambassadors, as a further sign that they have given up on Assad's regime. Meanwhile, the Muslim brotherhood in Egypt announced their full support for the rebels in Syria today. As one very notable Israeli news anchor said tonight: "Now I am totally confused. Am I now supposed to like the Muslim Brotherhood, since they are supporting the same peope I hope will win in Syria? It is getting very hard to figure out what one should wish for as these events unfold. Back in Israel uncomfortable questions are being asked of the Israeli Arab parties-- (especially some of the parties who have had strong ties to Syria) questioning why they have been totally quiet. How can there be massacres so close to Israel’s borders and they have not said a word. The Israeli press is full of stories of how the American press is claiming that Israel has decided to attack Iran, including details as to when such an attack will take place. From this vantage point, there seems to be a near hysteria on the matter in the US press. Some of that hysteria has been picked up by some of the Israeli media. Veteran Israeli observers, on the other hand, believe that much of it is a planned effort by the US and Israel to turn up the pressure on Iran. The two sides hoping that between sanctions which are getting ever tougher, and the real chance that Israel might attack will be enough to stop the Iranians. It may work. Certainly anything less, other than a regime change will not make a difference. However, there is, of course, a danger. There is a danger that the Iranians might take some sort of preemptive action in attacking some Israeli or American targets. Of course one could say that would not be the rational act, and in many ways I am sure there are Israeli policy planners that would love Iran to make their decision for them. But most would not. In addition, history is replete with wars that were not planned, but rather happened because of misunderstandings, or simply events spinning out of control. That is what could happen here. It is said that the current IDF intelligence estimates a low expectation of a planned war. However they believe there is a high possibility of a war due to factors spinning out of control.

Syria What is Happening and Why is it Important

Events in Syria reached new heights over the past two days, both on the ground, and in the world of diplomacy. On the ground, the numbers killed reached a new high. The opposition has reported that 300-400 were killed by the Syrian Army, in an attack on the city of Homs. Its not clear whether or not the number of reported fatalities has been exaggerated. However, it is known that 5,000 people had been killed through December. In the past month the number of Syrians killed has increased by an additional 2,000. As a result, It is now clear to all observors that while the Assad Regime may not collapse in the coming days, (though it might), it is now only a matter of time before the regime falls apart. The killings that have gone on now for a year, have eliminated any legitimacy that the Assad regime had to rule.

More significantly a movement that had begun demanding greater democracy in Syria is being transformed into a Sunni vs. Alawite Civil War. The calls for the first time have gone out for a Jihad against the Assad regime. Furthermore, the conflict has now become part of the larger Shiite (Iran) vs. Sunni (rest of the Arab world) conflict. While the Alawites are not strictly Shiites, they are considered by most Sunni as a type of Shiite. That view is only strengthened by the fact that Assad’s only regional ally is Iran. Today Iran's Foreign Minister clearly warned that if anyone tries to intervene to oust Assad, Iran will intervene and bring about a regional war.

All of this brings us to the UN, where the West and the Arab World were stopped from passing a resolution condemning the violence of the Assad regime and demanding Assad's resignation by a joint Chinese-Russian veto. Much of the world seems shocked by the Russian-Chinese action. As the Turkish Foreign Minister stated: "the veto shows that Russia and China cannot shake their cold war mentality." To some exent he is correct. Certainly Russia under Putin often acts in ways that are an echo of the old Soviet Union. However, I think this is much to simplistic even if it is one factor in the mix. Some claim that the Russians are afraid of losing their naval base in Syria. Though it is unclear why the Russian navy that can barely put 10 aging ships to sea at a time should care about preserving a naval base in Syria. This is beyond me. I think there are two other factors at work here. First, there is a fear that the demonstrations we have seen in the Arab world will spread to either Russia or China. In these past weeks we have already seen large and growing demonstrations against the rule of Putin in Russia. To the Russian mind, if the world can intervene in Syria they can intervene in Russia as well. The second reason is that we should all really care what happens in Syria, beyond the human cost, that should be simply unacceptable to all.

What happens in Syria could hold the key to what happens in the rest of the Middle East. For it has been Syria that has been the main funnel between Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon, and to lesser extent to Hamas. Its not clear who will be in charge of the next government in Syria. Very little is known about who is in control of the opposition. Two things are clear however. Whoever comes to power in Syria is not about to make peace with Israel the day after they take office. On the other hand, a new Syrian regime is also not likely to continue to support the Hezbollah in Lebanon, nor are they likely to remain a supporter of the increasingly isolated regime in Teheran. Just the opposite. By supporting Assad to the end, the Iranian regime is likely to be considered an enemy of the Syrian people. The other new enemies are likely to be Russia, and, to a lesser extent, China. It is not pictures of Obama who are being burned in Syria, nor American flags, rather it is pictures of Putin and Russian flags that are being vandalized. Might the same thing happen in a year or two in Iran?

The Israeli cabinet gave final approval today to build a railway between Tel Aviv and Eilat. An experienced transportation planner who I met over the weekend, thinks its folly and that there are better places to put Israel's limited resources. I am not sure I agree. Sometimes you need transformational projects; not just a slight improvement to urban transit system (something Israel clearly needs). Also there are potential strategic implications of a land bridge that will provide and alternative to the ever growing demurrage charges for using the Suez Canal. The Chinese seem particularly interested in investing in the project, and its not because they are disciples of Ben Gurion and wish to settle the Negev.
Tomorrow I will discuss the possibilities of an accidental war starting with Iran, and not one that starts because Israel attacks Iranian nuclear facilities. In the meantime read Jeffrey Goldbergs list of the ways Iran Hates Israel

 

200,000 Missiles Pointed At Israel? The Implications of the Egyptian Soccer Tragedy

Today marked the close of the Herziliya Conference; and annual gathering that brings together leading members of the government, academia and the business world to look at problems facing Israel and the Middle East. It was the place were Ariel Sharon unveiled his disengagement plan for the first time. This year's conference was dominated by discussion of Iran and the missile threat which Hezbollah, Hamas and Iran jointly present for Israel. The head of Israeli Military Intelligence helpfully shared with the assembly that at any given time there were 200,000 missiles aimed at Israel. Of course, who am I to argue with the head of Military Intelligence. However, I can say the impression he has left is a little problematic. When I hear the statement that 200,000 missiles are aimed at Israel, I imagine 200,0000 missiles on launch pads ready to strike Israel at any time. In reality, while the number is no doubt frighteningly high, the actual number of missile launchers that are available is probably in the thousands (if that high). The Intelligence head was referring to the total inventory of missiles that all of are enemies pocess together. On the other side of the spectrum, the Vice Prime Minister (and the person I hold responsible for the state of the IDF in the second Lebanon War) confidently announced that Israel has the capability of destroying all of Iran’s nuclear sites.
Much of the news today focused on the tragedy in Egypt last night. 73 people died in a melee following a soccer game. Unfortunately, the events are not merely a local tragedy. They reflect two larger more important trends. First, the chaos was a result of the anarchy that exists in Egyptian society today. There are no police on the streets and there were no police in the stadium. There is simply no one running civil society in Egypt. Second, and probably worse, however, is that the deaths seem to represent an even greater breakdown in what has always been a very hierarchical Eyptian society. Over the past few years there have been strikes, protests and a complete pushback against the strict hierarchy that run Egyptian civil society. The uprising that brought an end Mubark rule's is just one expression of that change. Unfortunately, its very difficult to reestablish a new order when the order in a very hierarchical society breaks down.
It did not rain in Tel Aviv today. Having lived in this city for a mere four months, I was wondering whether the rainy winter we were having was normal. Last week friends of mine who have been living in Israel for decades said they do not remember a winter that was as cold or rainy. Well, yesterday it became official. This past January was the wettest January in Israel's history. Rain fell in Israel 29 out to 31 days.

Tal Law Dies, Assad Wife Fails to Flee

Today was the day the "Tal Law" officially came to an end. Prime Minister Netanyahu announced to a group of protesting veterans, that he no longer supports the extension of the Tal Law, but something has to come in its place, so as not to divide the nation. Six months exists before the law ends. What can come in place of the Tal Law is very unclear. For the first time in a long time Charedi coalition members found themselves alone, with no support for passage of one of their most important laws.
In Syria, Assad's troops seem to be fighting back and regaining some of the ground they lost around the capital yesterday. But many think this is just a short term victory. There are a number of accounts that Assad’s wife tried to leave yesterday for the safety of exile, but the rebels cut off the route to the airport, trapping her in Damascus, for the moment. The future is clear. From what we are seeing in Lebanon, politicians are scrambling to try to position themselves for a Lebanon that is no longer dominated by Assad and the Syrians.